Institute of

MA Market Analysis

Projects

Field of Activity: Analysis of the Agricultural and Food Sector

Field of Activity: International agricultural trade – Food security

Field of Activity: Model-based Policy Impact Assessment

Field of Activity: Consumer Research

Accompanying research on the organization of deforestation-free supply chains

How can be ensured that the production of agricultural commodities is not linked to further deforestation? We analyze how deforestation-free supply chains are perceived by different market participants and how they can be actively shaped by policy.

Agricultural long-term policies for climate mitigation

The European Green Deal and the Farm-to-Fork Strategy highlight the importance of market-based instruments to alleviate climate change. A quantitative assessment of different instruments is crucial for successful climate policies.

Agriculture's share of consumer spending on selected food products

For more than 40 years, the Thünen Institute has been monitoring how agricultural revenues develop in relation to consumer expenditure on selected food products. The time series show that the agricultural value chain has changed structurally over time. For the meat markets we additionally calculate the ratio between producer and consumer prices, i.e. the market margin.

Analysis of livestock census for Germany

Developments in the pig and cattle markets as well as the markets of processed meat products are continually observed and studied. Issues are livestock, slaughter, trade, additional economic and political facts. Analysis results in forcasts of gross indigenous production in Germany for the next 18 month.

Analysis of the Russian strategy to promote agricultural production (STARLAP)

We analyze the impact of Russian agricultural policies on the competition of the Russian and German agricultural sectors in the project „STARLAP“.

Baseline with market models

Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

Bio-economy Monitoring

Food security, climate protection, biodiversity as well as supply of bio materials and renewable energy pose significantly challenges to our economy. But even the question of the actual state of bio-economy in Germany could not satisfactorily be answered. Not only the knowledge about the paths of bio-based material is lacking but also detailed data does often not exist. Thus, an assessment of the bio based economy is not possible.

Biodegradable biobased plastics - Recommendations for appropriate use (BBKH)

Biodegradable biobased plastics (BBK) are often seen as a solution for the pollution of the environment with plastic waste. But where does substitution of conventional by BBK plastics make sense? The institutes for agricultural technology and market analysis are investigating this question.

BioMonitor – Monitoring the Bioeconomy in the EU

In the EU project BioMonitor we address the information gap in bioeconomy research by re-structuring its existing data and modelling framework.

Capacity Building towards Food Security

Food security exists when all people at all times have access to sufficient and nutritious food to ensure an active and healthy life. At present, for a large proportion of the world population this is not the case. Even though the number of people suffering hunger has been reduced to the half since 1995, still there are more than 2 Billion people worldwide suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. Most of these people live in developing countries.

Carbon Farming and climate labeling

Agricultural land possesses great potential to contribute to climate change mitigation by retaining CO2. However, little research has been done on societal expectations and marketing opportunities for carbon farming and climate labels.

Changing agricultural policies - impact on markets

The next reform is just around the corner - that much is clear to anybody following agricultural policy in Germany and the EU. While some may groan in exasperation, these continuous adjustments reflect the extremely dynamic change of framework conditions and societal expectations that the agricultural sector is faced with.

Changing food patterns

Vegans, vegetarians, flexitarians – an increasing number of people in Germany are consuming less animal-source foods. The impact analysis of these changing dietary patterns on the German agricultural sector forms the core of this project.

CO2-tax on GHG emissions related to agriculture

Introduction of CO2-tax on greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture could reduce them. What impacts would such policy measure have? Is a tax on producer’s or on consumer’s side to prefer?

Consumers' preferences and demand for imported poultry meat in Ghana

Many African countries import large quantities of frozen meat products such as poultry from overseas including the EU. What preferences do consumers have for poultry meat? What impact does it have on local markets in Africa, and what role do EU trade policies have? Researchers of the Thünen-Institute of Market Analysis consider those questions for the West African country Ghana.

Contribution of trade to sustainable development

International trade can contribute to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. This research project focuses on the role of agricultural trade to foster sustainable developments.

Dairy markets - quo vadis?

How do the milk markets develop? What influence do political and economic factors have on the supply and the demand of milk and dairy products? What are the driving factors in domestic and international trade in dairy products?

Do free trade agreements encourage agricultural production in Eastern Europe?

Possible changes in tariff and trade policies of the EU with its eastern neighbors as well as trade between these countries change trade flows. How does this influence the agricultural sector?

Efficient reduction of food waste in primary production

The food value chain starts with primary production. In 2015, 1.36 million tons of food waste were generated there in Germany, only at this level. We want to support the primary production to reduce their food waste.

Efficient reduction of food waste in the processing sector

Efficient reduction of food waste in wholesale and retail trade

Nearly 500,000 tons of food waste were generated in the German wholesale and retail trade in 2015. According to the Federal Government's National Strategy for Food Waste Reduction, total food waste is to be halved by 2030. In order to achieve this goal, all players in the supply chain and consumers are required to act.

Evaluation of support of food industries

Evaluation of usage, results and impacts of the measure according to the guidlines under COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No 1698/2005 of 20 September 2005 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) of the EU Commission respectively. (Official Journal of the European Union L 277, 21 October 2005, pp. 1-40.)

FACCE MACSUR - Agriculture and Climate Change

The growing global population is requiring more food. At the same time, climate change makes agriculture a challenge many regions with a fast growing population. In this project, we develop integrated methods to make projections with models, study impacts, ways of mitigation and adaptation. These are first developed for Europe with a goal to apply the methods also in other regions.

Fairtrade 2.0

This project analyses coffee value chains in which the coffee processing and packaging takes primarily place in the producing African country and compares them to other coffee value chains.

Fewer Soy Imports to Germany?

Germany's dependence on soy imports, especially from Brazil, is increasingly viewed with scepticism by many parts of the society. We are investigating whether and how imports can be reduced and how this affects the markets in Germany and the exporting countries.

Focus on School Milk

Less and less pupils consume school milk - although school milk products are subsidized. Is the image of milk deterrent? Do not people know about its importance to health or do they disagree? Or is school milk still too expensive? The project "Focus on School Milk" analyses school milk along the supply chain, from the dairy industry to the pupil. The Thünen-Institut of Market Analysis explores, in cooperation with the Max Rubner-Institut reason for the decline in demand and provides advice to improve te system.

Food losses at the producer-retailer interface - causes and options for action

The United Nations, the EU and Germany are pursuing the goal of being less wasteful with food. But what options are available to achieve this goal?

Food, fuel or fibre?

Policy makers around the world have put policies in place that promote the use of biomass for energy purposes. The Thünen Institute analysis the impact of these policies.

How much food labelling is necessary?

Based on current EU regulations there is no requirement for labeling food produced from animals which are fed with genetically modified feed. The government plans to expand the existing labeling requirements to these food group.

How prices are determined?

How national and international prices for agricultural goods and processed products are determined? What influence do producers, processors, traders and consumers have?

Impact assessment of a Brexit

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has far-reaching consequences. In particular, trade relations with European countries need to be realigned. To analyse the potential impact of a Brexit on the German agricultural sector is at the heart of this project.

Impact of agricultural policy strategies on farms in Ukraine

How will the agricultural sector develop in Ukraine? How does this affect the development of farms? The Thünen Institute of Market Analysis, in cooperation with the German-Ukrainian Political Dialog, is analyzing the Ukrainian agricultural sector using the market model AGMEMOD .

Impact of meat and dairy exports on developing countries

German exports of livestock products to Africa are frequently criticized. We analyze how these exports actually affect domestic poultry and milk production using Ghana and Senegal as examples.

Impact of Trade Agreements

Regional trade agreements, such as TTIP (Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) between the EU and the USA, are under fire: for some people welcome the dismantling of trade barriers because of better market access and higher revenues; while others expect a sold-out of high social and health standards in Europe.

Implementation of sustainability aspects in the general equilibrium model MAGNET

What are the impacts of bioenergy strategies on greenhouse gas emissions and land use change dynamics? What interlinkages are derived from the pursuit of such strategies?

Interactions between agricultural, wood and energy markets

Policies and increasing prices for fossil energy sources make the use of biomass for energy purposes more attractive. At the same time, the costs of production of biomass increase. We combine the economic models for the agricultural and forestry sector from several Thünen institutes in order to represent the linkages between markets for agricultural and forestry products as well as for energy markets.

Is the Commodity Future Market suitable for Hedging the Price Risk in Dairy Markets?

Volatile dairy prices and recurring market cirsis are a new important challenge for the sector. Up-to-date market signals could help in early understanding of future market developments.

Long-term analysis of international meat markets

Developments on the markets for poultry, pork, beef and processed meat products are monitored. Their implications for the national and EU-market as well as in context with policy measures at national and EU - level are discussed.

Long-term analysis of sugar markets

How do sugar prices develop? Which countries are the largest sugar producers? How much sugar do we consume? What factors influence the sugar market? These and other questions are regularly analyzed by the Thuenen-Institute.

Markets for grain and oilseeds

What factors influence grain and oilseed markets? How have grain and oilseed markets developed and how could they develop in the future? Answers to these questions help to understand and explain markets. This is essential for policy makers, market participants and consumers to assess the effects of market interventions.

Our market models - established and new combined

EU agricultural policies as well as international trade policies have changed considerably during the last decades. This has led to an increased demand from policy makers and scientists for model-based quantitative assessments of the consequences of respective policy reforms.

Pathways to reduce food waste (REFOWAS)

The production and consumption of food has an impact on the environment. In this context we question the importance of food waste. To analyse this, we quantify the agricultural and food sectors along the entire value creation chain. Food waste can often be avoided with relative ease. In different case studies we study the main points and reasons for the creation of waste and study different way to reduce them.

Perspectives of German animal welfare meat on export markets

Animal husbandry is increasingly criticized in Germany and voices become louder to adjust legal requirements for animal husbandry in order to improve farm animal welfare. Higher legal requirements for animal welfare would imply higher production costs with the consequence of loss of international competitiveness of German meat producers.Code of Practice for organic food processing

Pricing in dairy markets: who dictates and who reacts?

The world is global – and the milk market too. What happens in Germany, if a "milk can" tips over in New Zealand? How are producer prices and how are price for consumers determined?

Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD

Projections of the future development of agricultural markets are the basis for ex-ante policy assessments. We conduct these projections for the EU member states on an annual basis. These projections are a part of the Agricultural Outlook of the European Commission.

Quality requirements and food loss in fruit and vegetables

Specific quality requirements and standards put forward by food retailing companies for fruit and vegetables are regarded as one cause of food loss in the upstream supply chain. In this case study we investigate the interdependencies and aim to quantify such losses in one retailer’s supply chain.

Reduce food waste in commercial kitchens (ELoFoS)

Primary production, processing, transport, storage and preparation of food affect the environment. Less food waste can reduce environmental load. We analyse prevention strategies.

Regional marketing of milk

Is regional marketing a suitable instrument for milk producers to become independent of volatile milk prices? We investigate the success factors of regional marketing of milk and dairy products.

Report module Agriculture and Environment in the Total Environmental Economic Accounts

The total environmental economic account (UGR) of the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) is a calculation on the basis of various statistics. It shows the interaction between business and nature. The goal of our project is to calculate the resource requirements for agricultural production, for example, energy use and pollution and CO2 emissions can be calculated, both for all of German agriculture as well as for each production unit, thus, for example, the ´product carbon footprint´ (Greenhouse gas footprint of products) in kg CO2 emissions per kg product.

Scenarios of the Bio Economy 2050 - Potentials, trade-offs, solution strategies

The transition of our present petrol-based to a more sustainable bio-based economy requires broad societal acceptance. For the successful implementation of the bio economy strategy potential trade-offs have to be identified in advance, and solution strategies for stakeholders and the civil society have to be developed.

SocialLab

Actually, almost no day passes without new critical headlines concerning animal husbandry. It seems that animal husbandry does no longer match consumers’ expectations or societal needs. But what are these expectations and needs? And what about the farmers? How do they feel if they are put under general suspicion torturing their animals?

Societal expectations towards ecological dairy cattle husbandry

While husbandry of pigs and poultry is discussed frequently dairy cattle husbandry seems to be of less importance. But does this really mean that the society is not interested in it? Or does it mean that they agree to it or do they even have no perception about it?

The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

The European sugar sector faces a difficult time in the coming years. From 1 October 2017, sugar beet growers and the sugar industry will lose their long-term planning security regarding production quantities and prices. How will the market react to these changing conditions? And who will be the winners and losers of the resulting market reactions?

The use of Biomass in Germany

Biomass can be used for the production of food and feed, bioenergy and for material use. The decision how biomass is finally used, depends substantially on (inter) national economic and political conditions. Currently the political support of bioenergy production and the resulting competition with alternative uses of biomass are in the focus of public discussions in Germany. The positions in this issue are manifold and complex. Depending on the political or economic perspective, they include, climate and environmental protection aspects, efficiency criteria of the different lines of energy, ...

The way tariff rate quotas influence our agricultural markets

How will the free trade agreement between the EU and Canada affect German dairy producers? Whether they can extend their exports to Canada under CETA – this is one of the questions we examine in this project.

Trends of dairy markets - reaching new shores

What happens to the dairy markets? How is milk produced in Germany and how prices do evolve? How do other important regions affect price formation on world markets?

What food waste is generated in German households?

In Germany, half of all food waste occurs in private households. In order to reduce this amount in the long term, precise knowledge of the amount, causes and composition of waste is essential.

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