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Institute of

MA Market Analysis

Projects "Model-based Policy Impact Assessment"

Ongoing projects

Baseline with market models

Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

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Baseline with market models

BioMonitor – Monitoring the Bioeconomy in the EU

In the EU project BioMonitor we address the information gap in bioeconomy research by re-structuring its existing data and modelling framework.

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BioMonitor – Monitoring the Bioeconomy in the EU

Capacity Building towards Food Security

Food security exists when all people at all times have access to sufficient and nutritious food to ensure an active and healthy life. At present, for a large proportion of the world population this is not the case. Even though the number of people suffering hunger has been reduced to the half since 1995, still there are more than 2 Billion people worldwide suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. Most of these people live in developing countries.

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Capacity Building towards Food Security

Changing agricultural policies - impact on markets

The next reform is just around the corner - that much is clear to anybody following agricultural policy in Germany and the EU. While some may groan in exasperation, these continuous adjustments reflect the extremely dynamic change of framework conditions and societal expectations that the agricultural sector is faced with.

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Changing agricultural policies - impact on markets

Changing food patterns

Vegans, vegetarians, flexitarians – an increasing number of people in Germany are consuming less animal-source foods. The impact analysis of these changing dietary patterns on the German agricultural sector forms the core of this project.

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Changing food patterns

Contribution of trade to sustainable development

International trade can contribute to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. This research project focuses on the role of agricultural trade to foster sustainable developments.

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Contribution of trade to sustainable development

Food, fuel or fibre?

Policy makers around the world have put policies in place that promote the use of biomass for energy purposes. The Thünen Institute analysis the impact of these policies.

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Food, fuel or fibre?

Impact of agricultural policy strategies on farms in Ukraine

How will the agricultural sector develop in Ukraine? How does this affect the development of farms? The Thünen Institute of Market Analysis, in cooperation with the German-Ukrainian Political Dialog, is analyzing the Ukrainian agricultural sector using the market model AGMEMOD .

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Impact of agricultural policy strategies on farms in Ukraine

Impact of Trade Agreements

Regional trade agreements, such as TTIP (Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) between the EU and the USA, are under fire: for some people welcome the dismantling of trade barriers because of better market access and higher revenues; while others expect a sold-out of high social and health standards in Europe.

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Impact of Trade Agreements

Our market models - established and new combined

EU agricultural policies as well as international trade policies have changed considerably during the last decades. This has led to an increased demand from policy makers and scientists for model-based quantitative assessments of the consequences of respective policy reforms.

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Our market models - established and new combined

Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD

Projections of the future development of agricultural markets are the basis for ex-ante policy assessments. We conduct these projections for the EU member states on an annual basis. These projections are a part of the Agricultural Outlook of the European Commission.

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Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD

Finished projects

Analysis of the Russian strategy to promote agricultural production (STARLAP)

We analyze the impact of Russian agricultural policies on the competition of the Russian and German agricultural sectors in the project „STARLAP“.

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Analysis of the Russian strategy to promote agricultural production (STARLAP)

Bio-economy Monitoring

Food security, climate protection, biodiversity as well as supply of bio materials and renewable energy pose significantly challenges to our economy. But even the question of the actual state of bio-economy in Germany could not satisfactorily be answered. Not only the knowledge about the paths of bio-based material is lacking but also detailed data does often not exist. Thus, an assessment of the bio based economy is not possible.

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Bio-economy Monitoring

Biodegradable biobased plastics - Recommendations for appropriate use (BBKH)

Biodegradable biobased plastics (BBK) are often seen as a solution for the pollution of the environment with plastic waste. But where does substitution of conventional by BBK plastics make sense? The institutes for agricultural technology and market analysis are investigating this question.

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Biodegradable biobased plastics - Recommendations for appropriate use (BBKH)

CO2-tax on GHG emissions related to agriculture

Introduction of CO2-tax on greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture could reduce them. What impacts would such policy measure have? Is a tax on producer’s or on consumer’s side to prefer?

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CO2-tax on GHG emissions related to agriculture

Do free trade agreements encourage agricultural production in Eastern Europe?

Possible changes in tariff and trade policies of the EU with its eastern neighbors as well as trade between these countries change trade flows. How does this influence the agricultural sector?

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Do free trade agreements encourage agricultural production in Eastern Europe?

FACCE MACSUR - Agriculture and Climate Change

The growing global population is requiring more food. At the same time, climate change makes agriculture a challenge many regions with a fast growing population. In this project, we develop integrated methods to make projections with models, study impacts, ways of mitigation and adaptation. These are first developed for Europe with a goal to apply the methods also in other regions.

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FACCE MACSUR - Agriculture and Climate Change

Impact assessment of a Brexit

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has far-reaching consequences. In particular, trade relations with European countries need to be realigned. To analyse the potential impact of a Brexit on the German agricultural sector is at the heart of this project.

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Impact assessment of a Brexit

Implementation of sustainability aspects in the general equilibrium model MAGNET

What are the impacts of bioenergy strategies on greenhouse gas emissions and land use change dynamics? What interlinkages are derived from the pursuit of such strategies?

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Implementation of sustainability aspects in the general equilibrium model MAGNET

Interactions between agricultural, wood and energy markets

Policies and increasing prices for fossil energy sources make the use of biomass for energy purposes more attractive. At the same time, the costs of production of biomass increase. We combine the economic models for the agricultural and forestry sector from several Thünen institutes in order to represent the linkages between markets for agricultural and forestry products as well as for energy markets.

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Interactions between agricultural, wood and energy markets

Scenarios of the Bio Economy 2050 - Potentials, trade-offs, solution strategies

The transition of our present petrol-based to a more sustainable bio-based economy requires broad societal acceptance. For the successful implementation of the bio economy strategy potential trade-offs have to be identified in advance, and solution strategies for stakeholders and the civil society have to be developed.

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Scenarios of the Bio Economy 2050 - Potentials, trade-offs, solution strategies

The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

The European sugar sector faces a difficult time in the coming years. From 1 October 2017, sugar beet growers and the sugar industry will lose their long-term planning security regarding production quantities and prices. How will the market react to these changing conditions? And who will be the winners and losers of the resulting market reactions?

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The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

The use of Biomass in Germany

Biomass can be used for the production of food and feed, bioenergy and for material use. The decision how biomass is finally used, depends substantially on (inter) national economic and political conditions. Currently the political support of bioenergy production and the resulting competition with alternative uses of biomass are in the focus of public discussions in Germany. The positions in this issue are manifold and complex. Depending on the political or economic perspective, they include, climate and environmental protection aspects, efficiency criteria of the different lines of energy, ...

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The use of Biomass in Germany

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