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ICES advice on fishing opportunities: What's behind it?

Alexander Kempf, Holger Haslob, Jens Ulleweit, Norbert Rohlf, Matthias Bernreuther, Christoph Stransky, Karl-Michael Werner, Uwe Krumme, Christopher Zimmermann, Sven Stötera, Stefanie Haase | 07.12.2022


SF Institute of Sea Fisheries
OF Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries

In its annual advice, ICES provides an overview of the status of exploited fish stocks in the northeast Atlantic and publishes recommendations for future sustainable fishing opportunities. We explain what the advice means for German fisheries and why recommendations are at a certain level.

Each year, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) publishes the scientific advice on the status of fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic (ICES Advice) and proposes sustainable fishing opportunities for the following year. Below, we explain the status of the most important fish stocks for German fisheries in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic and the background of scientific recommendations for total allowable catches.

Fortunately, the status of many fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic and adjacent areas has improved in recent years. With reductions in fishing quotas and the resulting restrictions on fishing, the biomass of many stocks is showing a positive trend. From 2003 to 2020, the biomass of stocks with analytical assessments in the Northeast Atlantic increased by an average of 33%. However, the range of trends for individual stocks is large, and for some stocks it is negative (e.g., cod in the North Sea).

Many stocks are sustainably managed in line with the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) concept in EU waters, although the MSY target is not achieved for all stocks. In 2020, 54 out of 75 stocks for which corresponding reference values are available  achieved the MSY criterion. This represents 72% of the assessed stocks, compared to only 29% in 2003. The average fishing mortality rate, averaged over all stocks, was below the MSY target values for the first time in 2020, while in 2003 the target value was exceeded by an average of 67%. This indicates that the level of overfishing has decreased considerably. 

Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) is the optimum amount of catch that can be taken from a fish stock, exploiting its maximum growth potential, without affecting its ability to reproduce in the future.

At the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg in 2002, management of fish stocks based on MSY was defined as a global goal. Together with many other countries, EU Member States have adopted this policy objective and embedded it in the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). A key objective of the CFP is thus to manage all stocks with catch limits that deliver the maximum sustainable yield by 2020. Here, FMSY refers to the optimal fishing intensity that allows for maximum sustainable yield. If stocks are fished above FMSY, their growth potential is no longer optimally utilised and fisheries lose long-term yield.

However, a fish stock only becomes endangered when more fish are taken out than are replaced by reproduction over a longer-time period and the stock falls below a critical spawning stock biomass levels, below which the risk of reduced offspring production increases rapidly. The stock is then called outside safe biological limits.

Therefore, overfishing in terms of maximum sustainable yield (loss of yield) must be distinguished from overfishing with regard tosafe biological limits (reduced offspring production).

Fishing mortality is a measure of the amount of fish or other marine living resource  taken by catch from the harvestable portion of a stock over a given period of time.

The recovery of stocks also has positive economic effects. However, other factors also play a crucial role. For example, the EU fishing fleet recorded net profits of EUR 800 million in 2020 – a 29% decrease compared to 2019, due to effects of the Corona pandemic. Rising fuel costs are expected to further reduce profitability.

Explanations on the ICES advice for 2023

Fishing mortality decreased for North Sea cod from very high levels between 2000 and 2016, increased sharply again from 2016 onwards, and has now fallen sharply within one year below FMSY in 2021.  A possible recovery of the spawning stock biomass as response to reduced fishing pressure will take several years. The spawning stock biomass has been estimated to be below the limit reference point Blim at the beginning of 2022 and therefore still outside safe biological limits.

Moreover, a recovery observed between 2004 and 2015 was limited to the northern part of the North Sea. In the southern part, the stock has been at a very low level for decades and continues to decline. Climatic changes play a role next to fishing because the North Sea is the southern limit for the spatial distribution of cod. Thus, a potential recovery due to reduced fishing pressure is expected to occur mainly in the northern part of the North Sea. Overall, after 1998 the productivity of cod in the North Sea has been very low compared to previous time periods. This limits the recovery potential further.

Based on the MSY approach, ICES recommends a total allowable catch (TAC) of 26,008 tonnes for 2023. This constitutes an increase by 63% compared to the TAC in 2022 and by 82% compared to last year's ICES advice. The main reason for the more optimistic outlook is a predicted further recovery due to comparatively low fishing pressure. The predicted recovery takes North Sea cod above Blim with 92.5% probability in 2024 when setting a TAC of 26,008 tonnes.

The explanation of cod in the North Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Alexander Kempf

North Sea saithe has been assessed to be just outside safe biological limits in 2022. The stock has been fished above FMSY in 2021 according to the latest assessment. However, the level of overfishing has been declining since 2019. The productivity of the stock has been lower in the last 10 years than in previous decades pointing towards additional unfavourable environmental conditions.

ICES recommends a total allowable catch of 58,912 tonnes for 2023. This represents an increase of 18.7% compared to last year’s advice for 2022. The increase is explained by a predicted increase in the stock. In addition, quotas were not fished in 2021. This leaves last year's forecast too pessimistic.

All major fleets directly fishing for saithe show a decrease in catch rates (as proxy for developments in the stock) compared to some years ago. Between 2020 and 2021, at least the French fleet shows an increase in catch rates again. However, the interpretation of commercial data is difficult as changes in fishing patterns may also be triggered by economic considerations. This increases the uncertainty of the stock assessment. Since the available scientific survey is not specifically targeting saithe either, the assessment as a whole is considered uncertain.

The explanation of the saithe in the North Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Alexander Kempf

Because of a continuous decrease in the fishing effort of the main fleets targeting flatfish, the fishing mortality rate (F) has decreased considerably for plaice after year 2000. F has been below the reference level FMSY since 2007 with a further decreasing trend since 2018. The estimated recruitment has been mostly above average since 2010. The spawning stock biomass of plaice has increased substantially reaching in 2014 the highest level observed after 1957. Since then, the stock has slightly declined again due to natural fluctuations. But it remains well above all biomass reference points.

ICES advices for 2023 a total allowable catch (TAC) for plaice in the North Sea and Skagerrak of no more than 150,705 tonnes. This is slightly above last year's recommendation (+5.8%) and takes into account alternating stronger and weaker year classes. The total catch has in recent years always been well below the TAC as fishing out quotas is currently not profitable. In recent years, there has been a tendency towards a lower weight of individuals. This could indicate food limitation because of high stock densities.

The assessment has been benchmarked in 2022. Overall, however, the assessment results and the estimated sustainable TACs remain at a very similar levels to before the benchmark.

The explanation of Plaice in the North Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Holger Haslob

The spawning stock biomass of sole in the North Sea showed a generally decreasing trend until 2007 after a peak in the early 1990s. After this low around 2007, the stock recovered slightly and remained around the critical reference level Blim for many years. Due to a strong 2018 year-class, the spawning stock biomass has increased in recent years and the stock is estimated to be only just slightly below safe biological limits in 2021. Fishing mortality (F) has declined since 1997, but has always been above the FMSY reference level. Only after 2020 there has been a further decline towards FMSY and the 2021 fishing mortality rate is estimated to be almost at FMSY level. Since the early 1990s, recruitment has mostly been below the long-term average without significant trend. The fishery is concentrated on the strong 2018 year-class.

Following the MSY approach, ICES recommends a total allowable catch (TAC) of 9,152 tonnes for 2023. This is 40% lower than last year's recommended TAC for 2022. The main reason for the lower catch advice is that the large 2018 year class is estimated to be weaker in the most recent assessment than predicted by the model in previous years.

The explanation of sole in the North Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Holger Haslob

The spawning stock biomass of North Sea herring has fluctuated between 1.2 and 2.4 million tonnes since the late 1990s. A sharp decline in the spawning stock in the mid-1990s led to drastic catch restrictions. As a result, the stock recovered. Since 1996, the spawning stock biomass has been within safe biological limits and fishing mortality has been consistently below FMSY.

Despite the good stock status, herring recruitment has been below average since 2003. Only 2013 produced a stronger year class. Catches of herring larvae on the spawning grounds show that sufficient amounts of larvae continue to hatch. However, most of them do not reach the juvenile stage. The reasons for this have not been conclusively clarified.  As a result of low juvenile production, the population has been declining continuously in recent years.

Currently, there is no agreed management plan for North Sea herring between the EU, the UK and Norway. The catch advice follows the MSY approach. Fishing mortality is below FMSY and spawning stock biomass is above the relevant reference points. However, the biomass is slowly decreasing as mentioned above. Therefore, the ICES advice for 2023 has been reduced by 22% compared to last year and is 414,886 tonnes (of which 403,813 tonnes are for human consumption).

In addition to the A-fleet for human consumption, there is also an industrial fishery in the North Sea for the production of fish meal and fish oil (B-fleet). Since it is mainly juvenile herring that is taken as bycatch in the sprat fishery, this fleet segment has its own total catch limit for herring bycatch (expected to be 11,073 t in 2023).

Herring stocks from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea mix and are caught together off the southern Norwegian coast, in the Skagerrak/Kattegat and in the western Baltic Sea. For spring spawning herring from the western Baltic Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat, ICES recommends a fishing ban for 2023 due to its poor stock status. Therefore, the corresponding recommendations for catch shares of North Sea herring in the areas mentioned have also been set to zero.

In addition to catch data and biological sampling from fisheries, various time series from scientific research trips (herring larval survey, juvenile herring abundance, bottom trawl catches) are also used in the stock assessment. In addition, acoustic measurements of the number and strength of the herring shoals are used. Therefore, the quantity and quality of input data are very good compared to many other stock assessments.

The explanation of herring in the North Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Norbert Rohlf

The spawning stock biomass of Northeast Atlantic mackerel has increased substantially since the 2000s to a maximum in 2014, and has been declining since then, but is still estimated to be within safe biological limits. Fishing mortality has declined since 2003 and has been below FMSY since 2016. Some large year classes have developed since the early 2000s. As a result of increased biomass and climatic changes, the stock has substantive expanded its area of distribution to the northwest (Iceland, Greenland) since the late 2000s, especially during the long summer feeding migrations. However, this process does not seem to be continuing at present.

An age-based model is used to assess the stock. This model uses - in addition to commercial data - the triennial mackerel egg survey, which targets the annual egg production, and for several years also a Nordic survey, which focusses on the stock during the feeding migration. In addition, the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) is used in Q4 and Q1 to provide estimates of juvenile abundance. Norwegian tagging data, using recapture rates to estimate stock size, have also been integrated into the assessment in recent years.

The latest scientific advice from 2022 sets a total allowable catch for 2023 of 782,066 tons, which is only slightly lower than the previous year's advice of 795,000 tons. In recent years, however, coastal states (e.g. EU states, Norway, Iceland, Greenland, Russia) have been unable to agree on a common total allowalbe catch and the sum of established unilateral quotas exceeded the scientific recommendations by far. Mackerel is also caught in international waters, which further complicates management.

The explanation on mackerel in the North-East Atlantic as PDF for download

Contact: Jens Ulleweit

This stock is currently in a good condition. The spawning stock biomass has been within safe biological limits since 2002 and reached its historic peak in 2013. Since then, biomass has declined, but the stock continues to be fished sustainably and fishing mortality (F) has been below or at the reference level FMSY since 2008.

The ICES advice of no more than 708,480 tonnes total allowable catch in 2022 is well below the recommended catch for 2021 of 885,600 tonnes. This reduction is the results from the fact that the stock size is decreasing and is also estimated to be lower than in the previous year’s assessments.  The survey indices were lower than expected last year. The recommended catch corresponds to a fishing mortality rate of 0.62, which is just above the FMSY range of 0.40 - 0.60. Based on FMSY (0.4), the recommended catch would be significantly lower (532,968 tonnes). But the Harvest Control Rules in the Norwegian-Russian Management Plan limit a decrease (or increase) in the total allowable catch from one year to the next to 20% and allows fishing above FMSY if the spawning stock biomass is well within safe biological limits. 

As Russian scientists are currently excluded from ICES work, no stock assessment could be carried out in 2022. Therefore, no new assessment from 2022 and catch advice for 2023 is available from ICES.

The explanation of cod in the East Arctic as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Matthias Bernreuther

The German fleet fishes for redfish mainly on the Greenland shelf and until 2020 in the Irminger Sea. Two redfish species, the beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) and the golden redfish (S. norvegicus, formerly S. marinus), occur there in several stocks. The status of these stocks varies. On the East Greenland shelf, the two species are also caught together, and distinguishing between S. norvegicus and S. mentella is often difficult resulting in misreporting between the co-occurring species or both species being reported together as "redfish". 

The S. norvegicus stock on the East Greenland shelf is part of the stock mainly found on the Icelandic shelf. The spawning stock biomass has been within safe biological limits since 2009 and has been fished close to MSY since 2010. The ICES catch advice of no more than 25,545 tonnes for 2023 is about 6,300 tonnes below the total allowable catch of 31,855 tonnes recommended for 2022 and is based on the Greenland-Icelandic management plan for S. norvegicus.  The juvenile production is of concern. The production has been low since 2011 and the spawning stock biomass is expected to continue declining in 2023.

The exact status of the S. mentella stock occurring on the Greenland shelf cannot be accurately assessed. The stock has declined since 2010 and has not improved in subsequent years. As the most recent Greenland Shallow Water Survey biomass index from 2020 was close to zero, ICES recommends zero catch from this stock in 2022 and 2023.

In the neighbouring Irminger Sea, there are two other S. mentella stocks that are caught with pelagic trawls. These two stocks have also declined substantially, so that ICES has recommended no fishing for the shallow pelagic stock since 2010 and for the deep pelagic stock since 2017. In 2021, the stock status of the shallow S. mentella stock in the Irminger Sea could be reassessed for the first time since 2013. The result of the corresponding scientific survey was slightly more positive, as the resulting biomass index showed the highest value since 2005, but remains at a low level in comparison to historical time periods. Despite the slightly more positive assessment, the recommendation of a zero catch remains, as the increase in the index must first be confirmed in following scientific surveys. The deep pelagic stock (> 500 m water depth) has been fished since the 1990s with a fishing mortality rate well above FMSY. The results of the above-mentioned survey in 2021 show the lowest biomass value for the deep stock since the beginning of the survey. While e.g. Russia continues to fish for these stocks, the EU currently does not allow fishing for either stock.

The explanation of redfish in the Greenland/Irminger Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Christoph Stransky, Dr. Matthias Bernreuther

Two redfish species of commercial importance are found on the Norwegian shelf, in the Norwegian Sea and in the Barents Sea: Beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) and Golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus).

The Sebastes mentella stock is currently most likely in a good condition. Spawning stock biomass increased steadily between 1992 and 2005 and has stabilised at a high level since then. Fishing mortality (F) has been low since 1997 (F = 0.01 - 0.06), and strong year classes of offspring have been observed again since 2006. Under the precautionary approach, ICES recommended a maximum catch of no more than 67,210 tonnes for 2022, slightly higher than the total allowable catch for 2021 of ≤ 66,158 tonnes. A triennial scientific survey in the Norwegian Sea has been conducted in August 2022. After the results of this survey have been analysed, the assessment of the stock status can be updated in 2023.

In contrast, the golden redfish stock (S. norvegicus) found on the Norwegian shelf and in the Barents Sea is currently in poor condition. The spawning stock biomass has declined steadily since the late 1990s and is at its lowest level in the time series. Therefore, ICES has recommended zero catch for 2022 and 2023. In addition, ICES recommends minimising bycatch of golden redfish in other fisheries, such as for cod and saithe. Nonetheless, 3,000 to 10,000 tonnes per year have been caught internationally in recent years.

The explanation of redfish in the Norwegian Sea/Barentssea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Christoph Stransky, Dr. Matthias Bernreuther

According to current knowledge, the cod stock complex off Greenland is divided into three subunits with clear ecological differences. The western coastal stock lives in the extensive fjord systems and the offshore stock is divided into a western (West Greenland) and an eastern (Southwest Greenland to Iceland) part. The eastern stock is mixing with the cod stock off Iceland. Historically, the peak of the cod fishery off Greenland was associated with a very large western offshore stock, while the recovery since the early 2000s is due to a strengthening of the eastern component. Overall, the stocks mix during the different life stages. It is therefore difficult to attribute catches to one population.

The collapse of the stocks in the early 1990s was followed by a 10-year period of very low population density. The upward trend after 2000 is affected by considerable fluctuations. After a moratorium until 2005, fishing was allowed again in 2006.

Neither the Thünen Institute nor the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources could carry out scientific expeditions in 2021 due to bad weather conditions and technical problems with the vessels. However, the latest stock assessments indicate a slight decline in the spawning stock and thus the scientific catch recommendation for 2023 decreases slightly from 8768 to 8460 tonnes. In recent years, however, the politically set total allowable catches have always been many times higher than the scientific advice.

The West Greenland offshore stock is at a very low level compared to historical observations. Both the results of the Greenlandic and the German research cruises of 2020 show a very low stock size. Consequently, the scientific advice for 2022 and 2023 is for zero catch.

The explanation of cod around Greenland as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Karl-Michael Werner

For Greenland halibut as deep sea stock, no consistent scientific research survey is available. The stock area is large and includes waters around the Faroe Islands, Iceland and East Greenland. Accordingly, the stock dynamics are estimated to a greater extent from commercial catch data, in addition to a combined research index, with the results depending on the weighting of the individual input parameters.

A scientific stock assessment is available, but has large uncertainties. The stock is showing signs of recovery after stock densities reached their lowest levels in 1994-1996 and 2003-2006. In recent years, the stock has been stable within biologically safe limits. According to ICES advice for 2022, the annual total catch should not exceed 26,650 tonnes. This represents an increase of 13% compared to the previous year’s advice. According to the current estimate, fishing mortality is within the sustainable range, but the estimate is subject to large uncertainties.

The explanation of Greenland halibut as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Karl-Michael Werner

The directed fishery for Eastern Baltic cod has already been closed since mid-2019, at least in EU waters. There remains a small Russian catch and by-catches in the EU mixed flatfish fishery. Although fishing pressure is now very low, the stock shows no signs of recovery. Natural mortality is currently nine times higher than fishing mortality. The lack of oxygen in the deep basins of the eastern Baltic Sea is particularly critical. As a result, important spawning and feeding areas are being lost.

ICES is again recommending a fishery closure for 2023 based on the precautionary approach. The EU has so far translated this into a bycatch quota of 595 tonnes and closed all recreational fisheries. The management objective is now no longer to rebuild the stock to sustainable levels, but to conserve what remains of that stock.

The explanation of cod in the Eastern Baltic Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Uwe Krumme

This small but formerly very productive cod stock has been overfished since the early 2000s, i.e. fishing pressure has not been adjusted to the reduced production of offspring. Despite several warnings, politicians failed to adjust the management plan in force - mainly because the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers disagreed on who was responsible for this adjustment.

In 2015, however, the stock produced only 10% of the average amount of recruits: it collapsed. At this point, policymakers took the right measures, reduced the commercial catch drastically and involved recreational fisheries, which account for a significant share of the total harvest, in the recovery of the stock. The following year class (2016) was much stronger and the stock initially developed positively, however, since 2017, only poor to extremely poor year classes followed. The reason for this has not yet been conclusively explained, but as with eastern cod, the influence of environmental conditions is apparently now much more important than that of fishing. The stock declined again and is now only at half the limit reference value.

A revised stock calculation in 2021 made the stock status appear even worse. Since 2022, the directed fishery has been closed, and a very tight bycatch quota (less than 500 tonnes) has been set to keep the remaining fisheries open in the western Baltic Sea. For 2023, ICES recommends a catch of 943 tonnes based on the multi-annual management plan. After deducting catches from recreational fisheries and (mostly illegal) discards, it is likely that the directed fishery will remain closed and a bycatch quota will again be set at the current level.

The fishery reports that cod can no longer be caught in this area; therefore, the larger trawlers in Schleswig-Holstein, which largely targeted cod, will therefore be scrapped.

The explanation of cod in the Western Baltic Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Uwe Krumme

Western herring is the most important target species of the German coastal fishery, especially on the coast of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Since about 2004, recruitment has been steadily declining and it took some time before catch levels were sufficiently adjusted to this situation. The cause of the declining recruitment has been largely elucidated after 15 years of directed research: later and warmer winters cause a mismatch between herring larvae and their most important food; most of the larvae they starve to death.

Due to the delayed reduction of catches, the stock has decreased considerably and is now only at half of the limit reference value. ICES has therefore advised for the closure of the fishery for many years. For the Western Baltic management area, this recommendation was largely followed: Total allowable catches were reduced by 94% between 2017 and 2021. In the northern part of the distribution range (Kattegat and Skagerrak), on the other hand, legal catches remained far too high: they were only reduced by 57% between 2017 and 2021. As a result, the German coastal fishery was deprived of its basis, but total outtake from the stock still remained so high that the stock could not recover. Only in 2022 Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Norway were able to agree on further drastic cuts in catches in the Kattegat and Skagerrak. In 2022, 80% of the catch are expected to be taken in the eastern North Sea (under the North Sea Herring TAC), only 10% in the Kattegat/Skagerrak and western Baltic Sea, respectively.

The stock could now recover within 5-7 years if fishing pressure remains low. However, even then it will only provide half the yield that could be sustainably fished in the 1990s. ICES maintains its recommendation for 2023 to close the fishery throughout its range.

The explanation of herring in the Western Baltic Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Christopher Zimmermann

Five flatfish species are commercially exploited in the Baltic Sea: plaice, flounder, dab, brill and turbot. Only plaice is limited by a quota. In the past, flatfish were mainly by-catch in the cod fishery; there were only small directed fisheries, e.g. for turbot. Since the closure of the two cod fisheries, flatfish have become one of the few exploitable target species in the western Baltic Sea.

The two plaice stocks seem to be doing well, benefiting mainly from much lower predation pressure due to the poor condition of the cod. Recruitment is strong, ICES could therefore recommend an increase in catches for many years. For 2023, catches of 13,315 tonnes are possible in the Baltic Sea (SD 22-32) – an increase of 20.1% compared to the previous year's TAC. However, the catches include discards, the vast majority of which have been illegal since 2017 and still account for over 20% of the catches from the area. The plaice TAC is not nearly fished out, due to a very uneven distribution of national quotas: Denmark is entitled to three quarters of the catch, the other nations share the rest. So for these fisheries, including Germany's, the quotas are very limiting, but not for Denmark.

There were first indications in 2022 that the plaice caught are becoming thinner, i.e. their condition is deteriorating. Whether this is a density effect, i.e. the stocks would have to be fished more intensively, or a consequence of changing environmental conditions, as is the case with cod, is unclear at this point.

The other flatfish stocks in the western Baltic Sea are also in good condition and can withstand the current fishing pressure. However, the income achievable from flatfish fishing cannot come close to compensating for the catch losses of herring and cod.

The explanation of flatfish in the Baltic Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Sven Stötera

Sprat is one of the beneficiaries of the changed environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea. The biomass of this currently largest fish stock in the Baltic Sea (bigger than one million tonnes spawning stock biomass) has been well within the green zone for many years, but fishing pressure is currently too high.

The German fisheriy exploit this resource with two large (approx. 50 metres long) and a few smaller trawlers, mainly for the production of fish meal and fish oil. The 2019 and 2020 year classes were above average, while the 2021 year class was rather weak.

ICES recommends a 16% reduction of catches (compared to the 2022 TAC) to a maximum of 249,237 tonnes in 2023, based on the multi-year management plan. This amount includes the Russian autonomous quota of around 45,000 tonnes. The stock assessment will be more uncertain in the future because Russian data will no longer be submitted.

The explanation of sprat in the Baltic Sea as a PDF download

Contact: Dr. Stefanie Haase

A comprehensive overview of the status of most marine fish stocks of importance to the German market is provided on the German website Fischbestände online.

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