The land use sector will remain a source of emissions in the long term, agriculture will meet its targets by 2030

Braunschweig (14 March 2026). The land use sector in Germany is falling well short of its climate protection targets: Although greenhouse gas emissions from forests, organic-rich soils and agricultural land fell by more than 30 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents to 26.9 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents in 2025, the required emission targets are being significantly missed. The Climate Protection Act stipulated that, on average between 2027 and 2030, at least 25 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents per year should be permanently sequestered in forests and soils. Current calculations by the Thünen Institute now show that this amount will instead be released. Agriculture, on the other hand, is expected to exceed the specified reduction targets by 2030. 

The Thünen Institute provides the data for national greenhouse gas reporting for the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as well as for agriculture. Emissions from the consumption of heating and transport fuels in agriculture are calculated by the Federal Environment Agency. Emissions inventories always cover the period from the internationally agreed base year of 1990 up to two years prior to the current reporting year. The inventory published in 2026 will therefore cover emissions from 1990 up to and including 2024. In addition, a preliminary estimate for the previous year, i.e. 2025, will be produced.

Based on net emissions data, an annual projection is produced, offering a modelled view of the future. This 2026 projection now shows that the LULUCF sector will remain a significant source of greenhouse gases until at least 2030 – even if all agreed mitigation measures are implemented and no unforeseen events disrupt this trend. “Uncertainties are increasing as a result of climate change. Their impact on the sector is far greater than the combined effect of all mitigation measures introduced to date,” says Bernhard Osterburg, Head of Coordination Unit Climate, Soil, Biodiversity at the Thünen Institute.

The sector has never met its climate targets 

Since 2000, Germany’s LULUCF sector has been predominantly a net source of greenhouse gases to a greater or lesser extent. This source effect was particularly pronounced during the drought year of 2003 and again during the dry years since 2018. In the reporting year 2024, all land use categories released greenhouse gases. Most emissions continue to come from organic-rich soils, i.e. mainly from drained peatlands. The rewetting of peatlands therefore remains the method of choice for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the LULUCF sector.

Forests recover easily 

Following the disastrous years for the forests since 2018, researchers are observing a slight recovery from 2023 onwards. The felling of damaged timber, particularly dead and damaged spruce trees, has now largely been completed. However, growth rates in timber stock remain lower than before 2018. The same applies to the carbon sink capacity of the forests: in 2025, 19 million tonnes more carbon dioxide were sequestered in the forest than were released. However, the levels seen in the years prior to 2018 have not been reached.

Agriculture meets targets for 2030

The 2026 projection for the agricultural sector is more positive. According to the projection, greenhouse gas emissions are set to fall to 58.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents by 2030, to 55.6 million tonnes by 2040, and to 54.4 million tonnes by 2050. Overall, the sector is therefore expected to exceed the reduction targets set out in the Climate Action Act for the period 2021 to 2030 by 14.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. This trend is based on both actual reductions and methodological adjustments. Effective measures include the more efficient use of nitrogen and savings in fossil energy. The decline in livestock numbers in recent years is also contributing to this. After 2030, however, researchers expect only a slight decline in emissions. Further reduction measures would be necessary to ensure that ambitious climate protection targets can also be achieved during this period.