Model-based Policy Impact Assessment

International developments and policy decisions affect supply, demand, trade and prices of agricultural commodities. In the work area, "Model-based Policy Impact Assessment" we identify consequences of possible future policy changes using economic models. Our results serve as a basis to support policy decision-making processes.

We use a variety of scientifically sound models to analyse relationships between different market agents. Our models describe, for example, the relationship between growth in per capita income and domestic demand or the relationship between tariffs and import demand. With a so-called “Baseline” we project how agricultural markets and trade develop over the next decade given current policies. In most cases we collaborate in the Thünen Model-Platform. In order to provide answers to current political issues at short notice, our models and their databases are continuously maintained, updated and kept ready for use.

Our Baseline serves as reference for further analyses. These include the exploration of effects of future policy changes (for example reduction of direct payments), changes in overall economic conditions (such as a depreciation of the Euro) and changes resulting from technological progress (such as a better vegetable oil yields in rapeseed processing). Such alterations are combined in scenarios describing the implications of complex changes: What are the effects of bilateral trade agreements on the German agricultural sector given the implementation of the recent CAP reform?

We present the outcome of scenarios relative to the projections of the Baseline. Our analyses enter recommendations for German as well as EU policy making processes. Furthermore, our results are published and available to our economic partners and the public.

Projects "Model-based Policy Impact Assessment"

Ongoing projects

Baseline with market models

Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

Changing agricultural policies - impact on markets

The next reform is just around the corner - that much is clear to anybody following agricultural policy in Germany and the EU. While some may groan in exasperation, these continuous adjustments reflect the extremely dynamic change of framework conditions and societal expectations that the agricultural sector is faced with.

Finished projects

Analysis of the Russian strategy to promote agricultural production (STARLAP)

We analyze the impact of Russian agricultural policies on the competition of the Russian and German agricultural sectors in the project „STARLAP“.

Biodegradable biobased plastics - Recommendations for appropriate use (BBKH)

Biodegradable biobased plastics (BBK) are often seen as a solution for the pollution of the environment with plastic waste. But where does substitution of conventional by BBK plastics make sense? The institutes for agricultural technology and market analysis are investigating this question.

BioMonitor – Monitoring the Bioeconomy in the EU

In the EU project BioMonitor we address the information gap in bioeconomy research by re-structuring its existing data and modelling framework.

Capacity Building towards Food Security

Food security exists when all people at all times have access to sufficient and nutritious food to ensure an active and healthy life. At present, for a large proportion of the world population this is not the case. Even though the number of people suffering hunger has been reduced to the half since 1995, still there are more than 2 Billion people worldwide suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. Most of these people live in developing countries.

Changing food patterns

Vegans, vegetarians, flexitarians – an increasing number of people in Germany are consuming less animal-source foods. The impact analysis of these changing dietary patterns on the German agricultural sector forms the core of this project.

CO2-tax on GHG emissions related to agriculture

Introduction of CO2-tax on greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture could reduce them. What impacts would such policy measure have? Is a tax on producer’s or on consumer’s side to prefer?

Do free trade agreements encourage agricultural production in Eastern Europe?

Possible changes in tariff and trade policies of the EU with its eastern neighbors as well as trade between these countries change trade flows. How does this influence the agricultural sector?

FACCE MACSUR - Agriculture and Climate Change

The growing global population is requiring more food. At the same time, climate change makes agriculture a challenge many regions with a fast growing population. In this project, we develop integrated methods to make projections with models, study impacts, ways of mitigation and adaptation. These are first developed for Europe with a goal to apply the methods also in other regions.

Implementation of sustainability aspects in the general equilibrium model MAGNET

What are the impacts of bioenergy strategies on greenhouse gas emissions and land use change dynamics? What interlinkages are derived from the pursuit of such strategies?

Interactions between agricultural, wood and energy markets

Policies and increasing prices for fossil energy sources make the use of biomass for energy purposes more attractive. At the same time, the costs of production of biomass increase. We combine the economic models for the agricultural and forestry sector from several Thünen institutes in order to represent the linkages between markets for agricultural and forestry products as well as for energy markets.

Scenarios of the Bio Economy 2050 - Potentials, trade-offs, solution strategies

The transition of our present petrol-based to a more sustainable bio-based economy requires broad societal acceptance. For the successful implementation of the bio economy strategy potential trade-offs have to be identified in advance, and solution strategies for stakeholders and the civil society have to be developed.

The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

The European sugar sector faces a difficult time in the coming years. From 1 October 2017, sugar beet growers and the sugar industry will lose their long-term planning security regarding production quantities and prices. How will the market react to these changing conditions? And who will be the winners and losers of the resulting market reactions?

The use of Biomass in Germany

Biomass can be used for the production of food and feed, bioenergy and for material use. The decision how biomass is finally used, depends substantially on (inter) national economic and political conditions. Currently the political support of bioenergy production and the resulting competition with alternative uses of biomass are in the focus of public discussions in Germany. The positions in this issue are manifold and complex. Depending on the political or economic perspective, they include, climate and environmental protection aspects, efficiency criteria of the different lines of energy, ...