EUDR Effects

Background and Objective

In 2023, the EU adopted the Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR) to reduce its influence on global deforestation and forest degradation. The regulation prohibits the entry of wood and a number of agricultural commodities including soy and cattle as well as products made thereof into the EU market, unless they are deforestation-free.

The EUDR-Effects project of the Thünen Institute of Forestry aims to assess effects of the EUDR on soy and cattle production in and between Brazil and Paraguay. Specifically, it will examine the perception and implementation of the deforestation-free requirement by actors along the supply chains in these countries. Core research elements are (i) analysis of existing policy instrument and their relation to the EUDR through literature reviews and participatory policy mapping in case study areas, as well as (ii) a large-scale interview campaign in the two countries among representatively selected actors along the soy and beef value chains.

Implementation of the EUDR will depend on links with existing national policy instruments. Support and cooperation measures need to take into account at least those policy instruments that have a direct and causal link to the EUDR. This will increase the effectiveness on one hand but as well ownership on the Brazilian and Paraguayan side. The expected main results include science-based answers to whether the regulation has the potential to reduce the EU’s influence on deforestation in Brazil and Paraguay and whether it affects land use and trade related to soy and beef. The project is designed to span for three years from 2025 to 2027.

Approach

2025: Literature reviews on existing policy instruments will be related to land use and land use changes on subnational/casts study level scale. In Brazil the work will build on existing outputs of the CarbonLeak project  (mid 2025 – mid 2026)

2025: Policy mapping case studies will be implemented mainly in the first half of the project period in collaboration with project partners. The case studies aim to provide a detailed insight in supporting or conflicting interrelations between EUDR and existing policy instruments and assess (supporting or conflicting) stakeholder perceptions.

Case studies include a compilation of all relevant policy instruments and the scientific analysis of their links and interrelations. 

2026: Stakeholder workshops and interviews in case study areas will be carried to assess policy perceptions and reactions among soy and cattle producers, as well as policy and science stakeholders and additional value chain actors, in Brazil and Paraguay. They examine the perception and implementation of EUDR related requirements and evaluate whether these align with or are in conflict with stakeholder motivations. Additionally, the survey quantifies the reactions of producers, traders, processors and exporters in terms of production and the resulting land use changes.

2027: Large scale interview campaign among soy and cattle producers, will be carried out depending on the availability of large scale contact information as online surveys in order to upscale the information gathered in the case studies