Dossier

US customs policy: This is how important the US market is for Germany

Martin Banse, Holger Weimar, Christopher Zimmermann

MA Institute of Market Analysis

WF Institute of Forestry OF Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries

The US is one of Germany's and the EU's most important trading partners. The US president's current tariff policy affects individual industries differently. Scientists at the Thünen Institute have analysed the effects on economic goods that are the subject of research at their institutes. Analyses for the agricultural sector are followed by evaluations for the timber industries and fisheries.

Parts of a USA and an EU flag and a prohibition sign with the inscription Straf Zölle. — Effects of the tariff dispute between the USA and the EU.

Tensions on the global market are increasing: With his tariff policy, US President Donald Trump is meanwhile influencing almost all areas of trade. This not only affects industry, but also international trade in agricultural products, timber and fish. But to which extent is the German agricultural and food industry, for example, dependent on the United States? And for whom are new trade barriers particularly problematic?

Expertise

Less USA, more EU - German agricultural trade takes place primarily on the domestic market

US President Donald Trump complains that the trade balances between the USA and the EU are not even. The Thünen Institute for Market Analysis has therefore taken a closer look at agricultural trade. Who imports or exports which products and in which quantities? How large is the actual trade deficit and which effect do increased tax rates have? An analysis.

Sawnwood and paper are sought-after export goods

The planned US tariffs on imported products will presumably also affect products made from wood that come from the EU or Germany. How intensive is the timber trade between the USA and Germany and how strongly would Germany's wood industry be affected by rising tariffs? An analysis.

EU counter-tariffs would hit the fishing industry hard

Germany exports a lot of processed salmon from aquaculture to the USA. Nevertheless, punitive tariffs would be less severe than expected counter-tariffs from the EU. This is because imports of white fish (especially Alaskan pollack) and wild salmon from the USA are much more important for the German market. There is a considerable trade deficit in fish products in favour of the USA.

Analysis of the trade conflict and initial assessment of the possible consequences

Using a model-based approach, the Thünen Institute has analysed possible economic effects of the current trade conflict between the USA, Europe, and Germany in three different scenarios. The findings in detail.

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