From Sink to Source - Projection data 2024

The Climate Change Act assigns a special role to the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector: It is the only sector that also contains sinks, not just sources, of greenhouse gases. In Germany, the incorporation of carbon dioxide in forest ecosystems is offset by the high emissions primarily from drained organic soils, which means that the sector is currently a slight source of greenhouse gas emissions. In the past, however, the sector was often a significant sink for greenhouse gases, meaning that more carbon dioxide was absorbed from the atmosphere than was released.

In Germany, around five billion tonnes of organic carbon are currently sequestered in the vegetation and soil of agricultural land and forests. This corresponds to around 18.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. By comparison, Germany emitted the same amount of carbon dioxide in the 23 years from 2000 to 2022. Agriculture and forestry therefore have a great responsibility to secure and, where possible, increase the large amounts of carbon stored in soil and vegetation through sustainable use.

The potential sink capacity in the sector is intended to offset emissions in other sectors such as agriculture, some of whose emissions are unavoidable. For the LULUCF sector, the Climate Protection Act stipulates that a balance of 25 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂ equivalent) per year is to be integrated on average between 2027 and 2030. The target value for net sequestration is 35 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year on average for the years 2037 to 2040 and 40 million tonnes for the period from 2042 to 2045.

The projection data for 2024 shows that the sector will remain a source of greenhouse gases for many years to come. If the adopted measures are implemented, a low net sequestration of 0.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent is expected in the years from 2027 to 2030. The target of a net sequestration of 25 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent will be missed by a wide margin.

In the 2023 projection report, it was still assumed that the LULUCF sector is a sink, i.e. that it sequesters more carbon dioxide than it releases. A net sequestration of 16.3 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent was expected for the average of the years 2027 to 2030 in the with-measures scenario. According to the old projection data, the target for net sequestration would also have been missed, but by a much smaller margin.

• Compared to the 2023 projection report, the current calculations also take into account methane emissions from artificial flowing and standing bodies of water (e.g. drainage ditches, fish ponds and reservoirs), as required by European directives. This results in an effect of approx. 4.8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
• The drought in recent years has caused large areas of forest to die off, resulting in a significant overall reduction in carbon uptake. These effects are becoming increasingly visible in greenhouse gas inventories thanks to improved data bases and methods. Forest carbon inventories are carried out approximately every five years. Final results for the period since the drought in 2018 will not be available until the fourth quarter of 2024.

The current development in the LULUCF sector is not in line with the climate targets. The targets for 2030 will be missed by a wide margin. In addition, there is still a lack of concrete implementation for some climate protection measures that have already been agreed in principle. Even with accelerated implementation, they would not be able to have a major impact by 2030, as many of the measures in the area of land use and forests will only be successful in the very long term. In the LULUCF sector, the focus must be on measures with a long-term impact, but their implementation must be faster and on a larger scale than in the past.

• Rewetting drained peatlands is the most effective measure to avoid emissions. The federal-state target agreement on climate protection through peatland soil protection and the peatland protection strategy set a mitigation target of five million tons of CO₂ equivalent annually by 2030. The rewetting of peatlands is a complex and long-term task, but the potential for carbon sequestration is considerably higher than this target.
• The phase-out of peat extraction and of the use of peat in potting soils and growing media can also avoid substantial amounts of CO₂ emissions.
• The forests that have been damaged by drought and the associated bark beetle infestation must be reforested quickly. For this purpose, fast-growing, site-adapted tree species that are resilient to climate change should be used. In this way, the CO₂ sink in forests can be improved or even restored in the long term.
• Where possible, afforestation should be realised. A considerable amount of carbon can also be quickly taken up by newly planted hedges and other agroforestry.
• The potential for increased carbon storage in wood products should be used more intensively, for example through the implementation of the timber construction initiative.