PANAP presentation on internal migration in response to climate change

The Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP) brings together partners from academia, research and institutions concerned with agro-economics and policy issues. Damiaan Persyn and co-authors presented their findings on the expected impact of droughts on migration using a regional general equilibrium model, with an application to Ethiopia, during an invited PANAP seminar.

The study develops a novel general-equilibrium framework that brings together a nested logit model of aggregate internal migration behaviour with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Migration parameters are estimated empirically—capturing how individuals choose between staying put or moving to different destinations. The estimated relationships are then embedded directly into the CGE model. The simulations reveal that, when drought strikes, migration serves as a buffer: labour outflows help the hardest-hit region adjust, blunting some of the economic losses. Small towns, rather than major urban centres, attract the bulk of these movers. Although the overall scale of migration is in line with previous estimates, its impact on the region’s total labour force is relatively modest.

The analysis highlights how institutional, geographic, social, and cultural barriers can constrain people’s ability to relocate. The developed framework can help to anticipate and manage the economic consequences of environmental stress.

To the study

Contact: Dr. Damiaan Persyn