Expertise
Is a fish finger crisis looming?
Christopher Zimmermann | 09.03.2026
Russia is the fourth largest producer of marine fish in the world. The significance of Russian marine fish imports for Germany is highlighted here.
Russia is the fourth largest producer of marine fish in the world. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), landings of Russian fishing vessels amounted to 5.39 million tons of marine fishery products in 2023. Russia is also of outstanding importance for imports to the EU and Germany, especially for one of the most popular marine fish on German plates, Alaska pollock, which is found in most fish fingers.
Between 2020 and 2024, direct Russian imports of Alaska pollock fillets to Germany increased from 22,600 to 54,000 tons. The value of Alaskan pollack imports from Russia in 2021 was 87.3 million euros. With the total volume of imports of this fish species remaining roughly constant at 150,000 tons product weight (resembling 450,000 tonnes fresh weight), the Russian share has thus increased from 15 to 45% within four years.
In contrast, imports of Alaska pollock fillets from China declined from 72,300 to 14,900 tons. However, this product is only first processed in China and also originates predominantly from Russian fisheries in the Western Pacific (FAO Area 61). There, Russian fleets take more than 88% of the total catch of this species. Overall, therefore, between 55 and 72% of the Alaska pollock processed in Germany is currently likely to come from Russian sources (Figure 7). The sharp change in imports between 2023 and 2024 was caused by an unexpected change in EU customs concessions for Alaska pollock of Russian origin at the end of 2023, which led to pull-forward effects in December. At that time, Chinese goods were primarily available. This led to a sharp increase in the Chinese share of imports in 2023, but then to an equally sharp decline in the following year.
As the Figure shows, Russian fisheries have a pivotal influence on stocks in other areas as well, especially in the Northeast Arctic (Barents Sea). There, Russia's share of cod catches is 48% (from a total catch of 277,000 tons, all figures for 2023) and for haddock 46% (179,000 tons). In the area between East Greenland and Newfoundland, Russia's share of redfish catches is about 69% (35,000 tons). Russian fisheries account for 55.3% of Pacific wild salmon catches (total catch 1,069,000 tonnes), and Russian wild fishing also plays an inportant role in freshwater fishing for pikeperch (45.0% of the total global catch of 21,000 tonnes).
Germany is the main producer of fish fingers and various types of so called "Schlemmerfilets", made from the white and boneless meat of the Alaska pollack. The largest fish finger factories in the world are located in Germany, about 60% of the EU production originates from German factories, and a considerable part of the production is exported to other European countries.
Alaska pollock is a scarce commodity on the world market, although it is the white fish species with the highest yield in the world. Besides Russia (53.4% share of the global landings of 3,542,000 tonnes), only U.S. fisheries produce comparable quantities (40,5%). However, these are sold by long-term supply contracts and cannot substitute for a shortfall in Russian supplies. In addition, imports of wild fish products from the US are suffering from uncertainty due to the dispute over import duties, whereby reciprocal tariffs imposed by the EU would have a greater impact on the supply of raw materials to the German fish industry than direct US import duties.
Substitute wanted
The Russian Alaskan Pollack fisheries are MSC certified, as are the American ones. Contrary to expectations shortly after the start of the war, Russian fisheries have found ways to continue to be audited annually and thus maintain their certification. The EU's sanctions packages against Russia to date do not directly target fish fillets or fish fillet blocks, but primarily crabs and caviar. In addition, individual Russian companies that are important for the fish fillet trade with the EU have now been sanctioned. The impact of the sanctions against Russia on the production of fish sticks and similar products is still minor – but that could change with further sanctions packages. The industry is therefore considering compensating for the shortfall with other fish species. In the past, pangasius, a freshwater fish from aquaculture, was used for this purpose.
However, it will not be possible to fully compensate for this, neither in terms of quantity, presentation (standardised fish blocks are indispensable here, both for Alaska pollock and wild salmon) nor price. It is also not possible to switch to other species. An import ban or even a drastic increase in import tariffs on Russian fish, as has been implemented in the UK, would therefore have a significant impact on the supply and prices of the products as well as on jobs in the German fish processing industry.
Fish from Russian sources no longer purchased by the EU would likely be taken up easily in other regions of the world, such as Asia, albeit - due to the then missing MSC label - at a price discount. Russia has also introduced measures to increase domestic consumption. Overall, this would cause irreparable damage to the German fishing industry and thus also to the supply of affordable fish products to the European market. Even after the war ends, fish fingers would then come from the Far East rather than from domestic production.
Other effects of the war on the German fishing industry
As in most other sectors of the economy, the sharp rise in the price of fuel in particular is causing major problems for fisheries. This is particularly true for energy-intensive fisheries, i.e. bottom trawl fisheries, e.g. for flatfish or North Sea shrimp. As a result, many smaller businesses have ceased operations, at least temporarily. The German Federal government's relief program, which was intended to make energy cheaper primarily through tax cuts, was not effective because fuel for fishing is tax-exempt anyway. Direct aids to the affected fisheries were more effective.
For the supply of the German market, own production by coastal fisheries does not play such an important role that restrictions in food security are expected. However, Russia's departure from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and from many intergovernmental regional fisheries management organisations have made sustainable management of shared resources even more challenging.
