Modelling of the global roundwood supply
Which economic theories describe the relationship between socioeconomic variables and forest development? How can global roundwood production be modeled with the help of theories of forest development? We want to improve the global forest products model GFPM with an extension of the module on forest development.
Background and Objective
The economic partial equilibrium model "Global Forest Products Model" (GFPM) simulates production, trade and calculated consumption for roundwood, semi-finished and finished products for 180 countries. This includes sawn wood, wood-based materials, pulpwood, paper, fibreboard and recovered paper. Market equilibrium calculations are based on developments in supply and demand, as well as manufacturing and transportation costs. The supply of roundwood is determined by the growth dynamics of forest stock, the change in forest area and the harvest volume. For the estimation of the supply-side roundwood production, a forest-specific module is integrated in the GFPM, which uses forestry and socioeconomic variables for the simulation. In addition to forest-specific parameters, the development of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is an important basis for this. The GFPM currently uses the theoretical approach of the Environmental Kuznets Curve to link forest development to economic factors.
The objective of our research project is to improve the representation of the roundwood supply in the GFPM by a more precise depiction of the total forest development under consideration of socioeconomic variables.
In this project we bundle several research activities. The focus of the work is the further development of the dynamic, price endogenous partial equilibrium model.
In a first step, the integrated model for the simulation of forest development is referenced to the current scientific state of the art by means of a systematic literature analysis. The aim here is to contrast the relevant theoretical approaches to forest development and compare them with respect to their socioeconomic variables. Special emphasis is also put on a possible differentiation of different forest types. Based on this, the adaptation of the supply-side simulation in GFPM takes place. For this purpose, the basic structure of the forest-specific model part must be reframed in GFPM in order to make necessary adjustments and extensions in the module for the simulation of forest development.
Data and Methods
The partial equilibrium model GFPM is at the core of this work. The data basis of this model is accessed from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) and the World Bank.