Enhancing Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Climate and its impacts (PREFACE)
Climate predictions in the tropical-subtropical Atlantic bear a high degree of uncertainty and even bias. Biological long-term data sets are used to support model evaluation and in turn, improved climate predictions are applied to improve forecasts for biological distribution and stock abundance models.
The Tropical Atlantic is a region of key uncertainty in the earth-climate system: state-of-the-art climate models exhibit large systematic error; large uncertainties exist in the relative roles of internal and external factors, such as aerosol forcing, in shaping climate change; and it is largely unknown how marine ecosystems respond to climate variability and how climate change will impact them. As a consequence, model-based prediction of Tropical Atlantic climate and its global socio-economic impacts are highly uncertain on all timescales. The magnitude of the problem and the need to resolve it is internationally recognised. PREFACE takes on the challenge to redress this situation through the first comprehensive assessment of the Tropical Atlantic. Compiled European and African expertise will combine regional and global scale modelling capabilities, field experiments and observation systems to address the following objectives:
11.2013 - 10.2017
Project status: ongoing