Deputy Director

Secretariat

Kerstin Martens
Institute of Farm Economics

Bundesallee 63
38116 Braunschweig
Phone: +49 531 596 5102
Fax: +49 531 596 5199
bw@thuenen.de


TRUSTEE Task "Validation of the implementation logic of RD-measures and the Baseline in the CAPRI model"

Project

Black Forest Panorama with Church and Villages (c) Rainer Sturm_pixelio.de
Analysing the impact of policy measures on rural areas is an essential part of the policy advice for further developing rural development programmes (© Rainer Sturm_pixelio.de)

To quantify the impact of policy measures for rural development, the development of the pan European model “Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact - The Rural Development Dimension” (CAPRI-RD) was the first important step. During the development process it became clear that measures to promote the rural area can only be modelled successfully, if national experts validate them continuously. In the TRUSTEE project, national experts come together to further continue this procedure.

Background and Objective

In the year 2000, a comprehensive catalogue of measures for promoting rural areas in the EU was established, known as the "second Pillar" of the Common Agricutural Policy (CAP). In addition to the conventional intervention measures of the agricultural policy, which are implemented uniformly in the EU, the second Pillar measures were implemented, which are designed region specific and very divers. They are also different by targeting not only the agricultural holdings but also other sectors in the rural economy. To estimate this impacts and the interrelationships between them, we enhanced in the previous project the modelling system „Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System“ (CAPRI) by regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models – the “Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact - The Rural Development Dimension” (CAPRI-RD) evolved. Through this enhancement, all economic sectors of rural areas could successfully be displayed. In the validation of the model results, the direction of the impact of second Pillar measures was confirmed. However, it revealed that it is of high importance to consider the regional differences in the design of the measures. This will now be our mission in the TRUSTEE project with assistance of national experts for the countries Germany, Sweden and France. Furthermore, we will validate the CAPRI baseline, using national data for Germany, Spain and Ireland, and will include these results in the before mentioned project tasks.

Approach

The CAPRI baseline will be validated together with project partners from Spain and Ireland for the respective countries. For this purpose, the CAPRI baseline will be compiled annually and compared with national model results, based on selected indicators. Significant differences between the models will be analysed and discussed with national experts on the annual Training Sessions. Missing issues will be considered for the CAPRI baseline in the following year. We will use the gained findings from the baseline validation also to validate the simulation of the second Pillar in the model. For this, we will take into account and further develop the points for optimizing the simulation of the second Pillar, identified during the CAPRI-RD project before. The focus will be on regional differences but also measure specific for selected countries.

Data and Methods

For the baseline validation, we will compare the CAPRI baseline with national baselines (or alternatively with other national data) for the countries Germany, Spain and Ireland. We plan to conduct expert interviews in Germany, Sweden and France to optimize the simulation of the differently designed second Pillar measures in the EU Member States. Additionally, evaluation reports should be studied and an extensive literature review will be carried out. For the comparison of model results, different simulations need to be calculated using the CAPRI model.

Our Research Questions

  • Is the CAPRI baseline consistent with national assessments of the EU Member States Germany, Spain and Ireland?
  • How useful are assessments of national experts for validating complex projections?
  • Can the CAPRI results regarding the impact of the second Pillar payments for Germany, Sweden and France be confirmed through expert interviews and the evaluation reports?
  • And if so, how can the model be of use for designing the second Pillar measures after 2020, with regard to policy impact assessment?
  • How can the regional differences in the design of second Pillar measures be better displayed in the CAPRI model?

Links and Downloads

www.trustee-project.eu

Thünen-Contact


Involved Thünen-Partners


Involved external Thünen-Partners


Funding Body

  • Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
    (national, öffentlich)

Duration

9.2013 - 2.2017

More Information

Projekt type:
Project status: ongoing

Publications to the project

hits: 3

  1. Gocht A, Espinosa M, Leip A, Lugato E, Schroeder LA, Doorslaer B van, Gomez y Paloma S (2016) A grassland strategy for farming systems in Europe to mitigate GHG emissions - an integrated spatially differentiated modelling approach. Land Use Pol 58:318-334, DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.07.024
  2. Espinosa M, Gocht A, Schroeder LA, Leip A, Gomez y Paloma S, Lugato E, Doorslaer B van (2015) Promotion of grassland as strategy to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission: results for Spain of the EU-wide analysis with the century and the CAPRI models. In: X Congreso de la Asociacion Espanola de economia agraria : alimentacion y territorios sostenibles desde el sur de Europa ; Cordoba, 9-11 de Septembre de 2015. Valencia: Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, pp 227-234
    pdf document (limited accessibility) 493 kb
  3. Schroeder LA, Gocht A, Britz W (2015) The impact of Pillar II Funding: validation of a modelling and evaluation perspective. J Agric Econ 66(2):415-441, DOI:10.1111/1477-9552.12091