Stabsstellen Klima und Boden
Phone: +49 531 596 1106
Fax: +49 531 596 1199
Phone: +49 531 596 1002
Fax: +49 531 596 1099
The impact of climate change on agricultural yields and cropland
The dry years in the past have brought climate change induced impacts on agricultural yields into the focus of public attention. But, how does climate change effect yields and what follows for adaptation strategies?
The joint research project together with the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD), the Julius Kühn-Institute (JKI) and the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) generates model-based, quantitative and spatially disaggregated simulations of potential changes in yields of the most important German crops until the mid of the century. It does not only account for yield impacts from continuous changes in climate parameters but also the impact of an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The generated information about the potential regional and national yield effects provides the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies.
The interdisciplinary project team will focus on the following research question:
Different Agro-ecosystem simulation models will be used to quantify the impact of climate change on agricultural yields until the mid of the century. The changes in meteorological and agri-meteorological parameters will be integrated into the analyses by using the results of simulations of climate change scenarios of the DWD references ensemble. In addition, in order to identify the most relevant extreme weather events, different approaches will be used to quantify the impact of different extreme weather events on yields in the past. In a next step, the changes in frequency and intensity of the most relevant extreme weather events until the mid of the century will be quantified by using the simulation of the DWD reference ensemble. The synopsis of results provides the basis for an overview of potential options for climate adaptation in agriculture.
1.2021 - 3.2022
Project status: ongoing