Bio Economy 2050: Potentials, trade-offs, solution strategies
The transition of our present petrol-based to a more sustainable bio-based economy requires broad societal acceptance. For the successful implementation of the bio economy strategy potential trade-offs have to be identified in advance, and solution strategies for stakeholders and the civil society have to be developed.
The bio economy encompasses all sectors of the economy and their related services that produce, prepare and process, use and trade with renewable biological resources. Bio-based economic activities are supposed to substantially contribute to an increasing independence from fossil resources, to reduce negative impacts on environment and climate, but also to ensure food security.
The research project aims at developing several scenarios of the change to an bio-based economy in 2050 and at presenting acceptable transition paths. Thereby, (political) responsibilities, options for action and control devices will be identified.
Policy, Industry, Population
We develop practicable transition paths to a bio-based economy on the basis of the current use of land and resources as well as the availability and usage of biomass. The increasing demand for biogenic resources and associated effects (e.g. effects on quantities, prices and trade, changes of CO2 emissions, changes of landscape, labour market effects) will be considered in the analyses to reveal the potentials of the bio economy as well as limitations and areas of conflicts. We analyse measures to mitigate conflicts (e.g. yield and efficiency improvement, cascade use, use of residual and waste materials) and evaluate them from the society's point of view. We discus trade-offs derived from modelling process with stakeholders and civil society in an iterative procedure to identify solution strategies and options of action.
The research project follows a transdisciplinary approach: Model-based analyses of different transition pathways to a bio-based economy will be combined with empirical social research methods on acceptance.
Due to the transdisciplinarity of the project we use different research methods on the basis of various data sources.
To develop the scenarios of the "Bio Economy 2050" the Story and Simulation (SAS) approach will be applied which combines qualitative, narrative descriptions and quantitative, model-based numerical information. This approach will be extended, for instance through the application of innovative methods from the fields of fuzzy set theory and system analysis. As part of the scenario panels, experts and stakeholders play key roles in the process of scenario development.
On the basis of models the ecological and economic impacts of the bio economy scenarios will be quantified. For this purpose, we establish a modelling framework combining such well-tested models as LandSHIFT, BENSIM, GFPM and MAGNET.
To our knowledge, the systematic integration of the civil society in the process of scenario development has never been realized before. We develop an appropriate instrument to communicate the complex model results to permit the scenario assessment through (members of) the civil society. For this purpose, primary data will be collected by the means of qualitative and quantitative methods of empirical social research. The results will be passed back into the scenario process, so that it will consistently undergo feedbacks that represents a real dialogue-process.
First results are expected in 2018.
1.2017 - 11.2019