Climate change and European aquatic RESources (CERES)
CERES advances a cause-and-effect understanding of how future climate change will influence Europe’s most important fish and shellfish populations, their habitats and the economic activities dependent on these species. CERES will involve and closely cooperate with industry and policy stakeholders to define policy, environment, social, technological, law and environmental climate change scenarios to be tested.
Global warming and climate change are likely to affect all biosphere components, including the functioning of aquatic ecosystems and their organisms. Given the significant increase in human population (15% by 2024, 35% by 2050) and demand for secure, sufficient and safe food supplies, it is critical to predict and anticipate the nature and magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on food production, including marine-based. By working with the industries concerned CERES will help develop innovative adaptation and mitigation strategies to enhance resilience to perceived threats, and to facilitate access to opportunities (the ‘blue growth’ agenda). Providing short-, medium- and long-term projections for aquatic ecosystems and the threats and opportunities for industries that rely on these is not an easy task, and requires our transdisciplinary team of oceanographers and hydrologists, modellers, ecologists, aquatic physiologists, social scientists, economists, fishers and fish/shellfish farmers working in conjunction with managers. Detailed mechanistic understanding and complex models must be employed to incorporate the workings of these industries as well as global seafood markets and policy landscapes. The EU requires fishing to be environmentally sustainable, economically viable and socially acceptable to provide long-term European food security given prevailing and future climatic conditions. EU Policies, intended to also boost aquaculture and Strategic Guidelines, have been published outlining common priorities and general objectives. Climate change will affect the capacity to achieve these ambitions and a greater understanding is urgently needed to ensure that management measures remain appropriate and achievable.
Fisheries and aquaculture sector
Objectives and approach of the CERES project in general and the tasks of TI-SF:
The CERES Project is structured into 7 work packages (WP): WP1 (Drivers & Scenarios), WP2 (Fisheries), WP3 (Aquaculture), WP4 (Economic Anlyses), WP5 (Risks, Vulnerabilities & Solutions), WP6 (Communications) and WP7 (Project management). The Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries is leading WP 4 with the objective to project challenges and opportunities of climate change in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. The economic unit will adapt the bio-economic model FishRent for the long distant pelagic fleet in the North East Atlantic to analyze scenarios coming from inputs from WP 2 on the changes in the fish stocks. Afterwards, we will develop proposals how the long-distance fleet can adapt to the changing conditions and which challenges the managers will face (e.g. if fish stocks move north). Additionally, the economic research unit will apply the typical farm approach from agri benchmark fish for additional species (especially salmon and sea bass) and will collect data from additional countries for trout. With the help of these data we will as well analyze challenges and opportunities of climate change and develop proposal how the aquaculture sector can adapt to the changes. The Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries is also involved in WP5 which will analyse climate change induced risks and opportunities for European fisheries and aquaculture as well as potential solutions based on the previous work of work packages 1-4. Specifically, the TI will use spatially- explicit Baysian statistics (Baysian Belief Networks) to quantify identified risks and opportunities using generated data and expert opinion.
3.2016 - 2.2020
Funding program: EU – Horizon 2020 – Societal Challenge "Climate Action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials"
Project status: ongoing