Why does fisheries management sometimes fail? Conduction of risk analyses on various aspects of fisheries management can help to answer this question.
Long-term management plans become more and more important in fisheries management. Therefore, impact assessments of long-term management plans are currently being intensively discussed. It is attempted to indentify the main risk factors for negative stock developments (e.g. recruitment failure because of climatic effects, illegal fishing). Harvest control rules are developed to minimize the risk of stocks falling below critical reference points even under unfavourable environmnetal conditions. Management measures are identified that minimize the risk of implementation failures.
science, politics, economics
Management strategy evaluations (MSEs) are complex modelling approaches where stocks are simulated but also the management cycle from the assessment to the implementation of quotas. Uncertainties and bias (e.g. illegal landings) are taken into account. With the help of MSEs, the robustness of harvest control rules can be tested and whether a management plan will lead to a sustainable exploitation with high probability. But also main factors leading to a failure of the plan can be identified. We contribute regularly to impact assessments of management plans inside working groups of ICES and STECF.
Management plan evaluations and impact assessments of ICES and STECF
1.2008 - 12.2020
Project status: ongoing