Climate change at the German Baltic coast- how can agriculture adapt?

Background and Objective

The framework conditions for agriculture are changing – also because agriculture has to adapt to climate change. This affects upstream and downstream economics markets, as well as the tourism sector. Nutrient inputs from agriculture are a recent problem that might get worse in the future.  The aim of the sub-project at the Institute of Rural Studies is to analyze how regional climate changes will affect agriculture in the Baltic Sea Region until the year 2020/2025. We want to derive appropriate action strategies and evaluate how negative impacts of climate change on agriculture can be averted. In the dialog with regional stakeholders we want to develop and analyze measures that reduce nutrient inputs from agriculture.

Target Group

Regional stakeholders and political decision makers

Approach

The main aims of the joint research project are to establish regional networks and to promote the dialog within these. In parallel the research projekt conducts natural science and engineering projects, as well as socio-economic research projects, grouped into six focus themes. They reflect the main economic sectors and fields of action in the region. In application projects we develop models for regional practical solution approaches. The project partners of the Institute of Rural Studies are responsible, according to their expertise, for the analysis of agricultural production and nutrient inputs in the Baltic Sea region. We thereby start from substantiated, regionally specific initial conditions to end with the expectable development of agricultural production and the resulting ecological and socio economic affects. On this basis, reliable scenarios can be calculated and  input- impact analysis can be conducted as well. With the identification of options for action for decision makers we want to support them to plan strategies and make decisions. The project results are incorporated and communicated primarily on the regional level within the project. We want to promote therewith the exchange and the discussion on the national, European and international levels.

Data and Methods

The analysis is based on available agricultural statistics as well as the climate change prognosis of different climate models. With the help of the Regional Agricultural and Environmental Information System RAUMIS, ex-post analyses as well as scenarios for alternative adaptation reactions are modeled.

Results

The project results have shown that the impacts of political and economic changes are considerably greater than the impact of climate change in the Baltic Sea Region until 2020 / 2025. Nutrient inputs from agriculture will be further reduced, however this is can vary strongly by region depending on the specific agricultural production. More project results can be found in the website (http://klimzug-radost.de), in the  RADOST yearly reports (http://klimzug-radost.de/publikationen/berichtsreihe) as well as in the publications.