How does the German demand for bioenergy affect global markets, land use, environment and food security? International trade gives insights.
The development of the German bioenergy sector bears multiple challenges: How can limited resources (for example land) be used most sustainably? How can resource saving and cost efficient technologies be promoted? What general conditions can we implement in the new markets to produce and use energy sustainably?
Our project ‘Milestones 2030’aims at deriving elements and milestones for a sustainable, medium- to long-term bioenergy strategy based on reliable data and model projections.
In this joint research project, we develop and compare four extreme scenarios. All scenarios have in common that a high demand for bioenergy is modeled in Germany. They differ in the form of bioenergy (fuel vs. electricity and heat) and sustainability standards (business as usual vs. high sustainability). In a modeling network, we determine different technologies and their resource and land demand. Based on this, we evaluate their impact on sustainability, environment, regions and food security. These analyses lead to recommendations for politicians, economic agents and scientists.
We, as the Thünen Institute, use the computable general equilibrium model MAGNET to project the German demand for biomass to produce bioenergy in an international context. Therefore, MAGNET is linked with two other models, namely a bio-physical land use model and a technology model for the bioenergy sector. Results of MAGNET are the global agricultural production, the additional demand of biomass for energy and the trade patterns.
How does an increased demand of biomass for energy purposes affect domestic and international markets?
How much biomass will be produced and where does it come from?
What are the resulting trade and market effects and how does global land use change?
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1.2012 - 12.2014