Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD
Projections of the future development of agricultural markets are the basis for ex-ante policy assessments. We conduct these projections for the EU member states on an annual basis. These projections are a part of the Agricultural Outlook of the European Commission.
Background and Objective
For several years, we have been conducting medium term projections for agricultural markets of all EU member states by using the model AGMEMOD (AGriculture MEmber states MODelling). AGMEMOD is a partial equilibrium model for the agricultural sector which was developed to analyze the impact of the common agricultural policy (CAP) for EU member states and the total EU.
The periodical medium-term projections require an update of the database, the parameters and in parts the structure of the model. The current project focuses on the extension of the model to depict the olive and olive oil markets and the national strategy plans of the CAP 2023-27. The conception of the representation of the new policy measures is of particular importance with regard to their impacts on the markets. This allows us to analyze the policy impacts on agricultural markets in certain scenarios. In this project, the methodological approach will be discussed with market experts in a workshop. The exchange with stakeholders is valuable because given their different perspectives they contribute new market insights which are incorporated in the analysis.
- Contribution to the agricultural outlook of the EU commission 2021
- Preparation of a Baseline for all EU member states with the help of the the model AGMEMOD up to 2031
Involved external Thünen-Partners
- Stichting Wageningen Research (WEcR)
Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW
European Union (EU)
Salamon P, Banse M, Donnellan T, Haß M, Jongeneel R, Laquai V, Leeuwen M van, Reziti I, Salputra G, Zirngibl M-E (2019) AGMEMOD Outlook for Agricultural and Food Markets in EU Member States 2018-2030. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 108 p, Thünen Working Paper 114, DOI:10.3220/WP1544622148000
Laquai V (2017) Cereals and oilseeds. In: Salputra G, Salamon P, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Banse M (eds) Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to member states : a medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities, pp 23-28
Salamon P, Banse M, Efken J, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Verhoog D, Donnellan T, Hanrahan KF (2017) EU agricultural outlook for the EU agricultural markets and income 2017-2030 : december 2017. Luxembourg: European Commission
Salamon P, Banse M, Laquai V, Leeuwen M van, Jongeneel R (2017) The AGMEMOD model approach. In: Salputra G, Salamon P, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Banse M (eds) Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to member states : a medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities, pp 10-19