FACCE MACSUR - Agriculture and Climate Change

Project

 (c) Thünen Institut/Martin Köchy

FACCE-JPI:"Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security" (MACSUR): Project part vTI

The growing global population is requiring more food. At the same time, climate change makes agriculture a challenge many regions with a fast growing population. In this project, we develop integrated methods to make projections with models, study impacts, ways of mitigation and adaptation. These are first developed for Europe with a goal to apply the methods also in other regions.

Background and Objective

The FACCE knowledge hub MACSUR improves the modelling of European agriculture under the effect of climate change and its possible effects on global food security. The work is organized in three themes on modelling of crop and livestock production and trade of agricultural and food products. The partnership consists of 70 partners from 18 countries (17 European plus Israel).


The overarching challenge is to develop and foster a pan-European capacity in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. MACSUR aims at the creation of research capacities within each theme and especially at the creation of research capacities integrating two or three themes. The projects addresses these aims in three areas:

• Improvment of integraton among existing quantitative models within the themes of crops. livestock, and trade. This includes their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.

• Reducing the uncertainty of effects of climate change on European agriculture and food security by developping integrated models across the three themes.

• Education and training of junior scientists in the area of integration and application of quntitative analysis instruments. Apart from improving the technical integration of models, the projects emphasizes training in interpreting and application of results of various models for political impacts. Therefore, MACSUR stresses the integration of modellers over the integration of models.

Approach

The integrative modelling approach will be first applied to individual European regions in pilot studies. The experience gained in these pilot studies regarding data requirements, data exchange, and necessary model extensions provide the foundation for developing a research strategy for a Europe-wide analysis of the impact of climate change on European agricuture and food security.

The contribution of Thünen Institute comprises the coordination of the project and contribution sto tasks within subthemes of crop production (CropM), livestock porduction (LiveM), and trade (TradeM). The contributions are provided in the context of and in collaboration with the other MACSUR partners.

Results

  • Creating a forum for knowledge exchange across science disciplines
  • Adoption of good-practice examples from other scientific communities
  • Structured description of models and comparisons of model performance
  • Selection of regional case studies as showcases of integrated and inter-disciplinary modelling work.
  • Training of junior scientists
  • Development of European Representative Agricultural Pathways as input to global scenario exercises.
  • Development of a data classification and rating tool for exploration of existing data sets.
  • Advancement of knowledge in modelling of crop production, grassland production, price development.
  • Collaboration on new externally funded projects.
  • About a dozen manuscripts on methodological aspects of modelling food security published or submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.
  • Overview papers in high-profile journals.
  • Provding a platform for knowledge exchange among junior and senior scientists at conferences, workshops, and courses

Links and Downloads

Project homepage

Project reports

Thünen-Contact


Involved Thünen-Partners


Duration

6.2012 - 6.2017

Publications

hits: 18

  1. Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Yeluripati JB, Specka X, Nendel C, Coucheney E, Kuhnert M, Tao F, Constantin J, Raynal H, Teixeira E, Grosz BP, Doro L, Kiese R, Eckersteen H, Haas E, Cammarano D, Kassie BT, Moriondo M, Trombi G, et al (2016) Evaluating the precision of eight spatial Sampling schemes in estimating regional means of simulated yield for two crops. Environ Modelling Software 80:100-112, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.022
  2. Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Asseng S, Bindi M, Biernath C, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Doro L, Eckersteen H, Gaiser T, Grosz BP, Heinlein F, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Moriondo M, Nendel C, et al (2016) Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations. PLoS One 11(4):e0151782, DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0151782
    pdf document (limited accessibility) 4125 kb
  3. Kipling RP, Virkajärvi P, Breitsameter L, Curnel Y, De Swarf T, Gustavsson A-J, Hennart S, Höglind M, Järvenranta K, Minet J, Nendel C, Persson T, Picon-Cochard C, Rolinski S, Sandars DL, Scollan ND, Sebek L, Seddaiu G, Topp CFE, Twardy S (2016) Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change. Sci Total Environ 566-567:851-864, DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.144
  4. Köchy M (2015) Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A workshop for decisionmakers. Workshop Programme [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 6, zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/SP6-0> [zitiert am 10.12.2015]
  5. Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Bussel LG van, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati JB, Tao F, Constantin J, Raynal H, Teixeira E, Grosz BP, Doro L, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Kiese R, Eckersteen H, Haas E, Vanuyrecht E, Wang E, et al (2015) Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables. Clim Res 65:141-157, DOI:10.3354/cr01301
  6. Sandor R, Ma S, Acutis M, Barcza Z, Ben Touhami H, Doro L, Hidy D, Köchy M, Lellei-Kovacz E, Minet J, Perego A, Rolinski S, Ruget F, Seddaiu G, Wu L, Bellocchi G (2015) Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon - water fluxes from grasslands under climate change. Adv Anim Biosci 6(1):49-51, DOI:10.1017/S2040470014000545
  7. Banse M, Brouwer F, Palatnik RR, Sinabell F (2014) The economics of european agriculture under conditions of climate change (editorial) [online]. German J Agric Econ 63(3):131-132, zu finden in <http://www.gjae-online.de/news/pdfstamps/freeoutputs/GJAE-765_2014.pdf> [zitiert am 03.11.2014]
  8. Braunmiller K, Köchy M (2013) Background information on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for use in MACSUR case studies [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 2(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/R-H2.1-1/25> [zitiert am 14.11.2013]
  9. Köchy M, Banse M (2013) Capacity building and workshop coordination in MACSUR [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/M-H3.1.2/6> [zitiert am 13.11.2013]
  10. Bellocchi G, Ma S, Köchy M, Braunmiller K (2013) Datasets classification and criteria for data requirements [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 2(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/29/pdf_2> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  11. Köchy M (2013) FACCE MACSUR Kickoff-Meeting [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/M-H3.1.0/2> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  12. Köchy M, Banse M (2013) Final products [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/M-H3.1.1/7> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  13. Köchy M (2013) Hub website and administrative tasks [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/D-H3.1-3/22> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  14. Braunmiller K, Köchy M (2013) Identification of grassland datasets [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/D-L1.3/20> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  15. Bellocchi G, Ma S, Köchy M, Braunmiller K (2013) Identified grassland-livestock production systems and related models [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 2(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/28/pdf_1> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  16. Köchy M (2013) Maps of grassland in Europe [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/D-L1.3.1/11> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  17. Köchy M (2013) Strategy for the dissemination of outputs at national, EU, and global levels [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 1(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/D-H2.4/3> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]
  18. Köchy M, Zimmermann A (2013) Workshop on regional pilot studies : 5-7 June 2013, Braunschweig [online]. FACCE MACSUR Rep 2(1), zu finden in <http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/R-H1.2.1/21> [zitiert am 12.11.2013]