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Institute of

MA Market Analysis

Project

Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD


Lead Institute MA Institute of Market Analysis

© Verena Laquai

Projections for agricultural markets on EU member state level with AGMEMOD

Projections of the future development of agricultural markets are the basis for ex-ante policy assessments. We conduct these projections for the EU member states on an annual basis. These projections are a part of the Agricultural Outlook of the European Commission.

Background and Objective

For several years, we have been conducting medium term projections for agricultural markets of all EU member states by using the model AGMEMOD (AGriculture MEmber states MODelling). AGMEMOD is a partial equilibrium model for the agricultural sector which was developed to analyze the impact of the common agricultural policy (CAP) for EU member states and the total EU.

Approach

The periodical medium-term projections require an update of the database, the parameters and in parts the structure of the model. The current project focuses on the extension of the model to depict the olive and olive oil markets and the national strategy plans of the CAP 2023-27. The conception of the representation of the new policy measures is of particular importance with regard to their impacts on the markets. This allows us to analyze the policy impacts on agricultural markets in certain scenarios. In this project, the methodological approach will be discussed with market experts in a workshop. The exchange with stakeholders is valuable because given their different perspectives they contribute new market insights which are incorporated in the analysis.

Preliminary Results

Involved external Thünen-Partners

Funding Body

  • European Union (EU)
    (international, öffentlich)

Publications

  1. 0

    Salamon P, Banse M, Donnellan T, Haß M, Jongeneel R, Laquai V, Leeuwen M van, Reziti I, Salputra G, Zirngibl M-E (2019) AGMEMOD Outlook for Agricultural and Food Markets in EU Member States 2018-2030. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 108 p, Thünen Working Paper 114, DOI:10.3220/WP1544622148000

    https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn060597.pdf

  2. 1

    Laquai V (2017) Cereals and oilseeds. In: Salputra G, Salamon P, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Banse M (eds) Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to member states : a medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities, pp 23-28

  3. 2

    Salamon P, Banse M, Efken J, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Verhoog D, Donnellan T, Hanrahan KF (2017) EU agricultural outlook for the EU agricultural markets and income 2017-2030 : december 2017. Luxembourg: European Commission

  4. 3

    Salamon P, Banse M, Laquai V, Leeuwen M van, Jongeneel R (2017) The AGMEMOD model approach. In: Salputra G, Salamon P, Jongeneel R, Leeuwen M van, Banse M (eds) Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to member states : a medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities, pp 10-19

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