The Thünen Baseline

Every two years, the Thünen Modelling Network establishes the Thünen Baseline. This is not a forecast but rather describes the developments expected in the German agricultural sector during the next ten years

  • under the framework of current (agricultural) policy including assumptions about the development of exogenous influences

The Thünen Baseline thus provides a reference scenario for analysing the impacts of alternative policies and developments.  

Objectives

The Thünen-Baseline serves

  • to identify the need for policy changes
  • as a reference scenario for analysing the impacts of alternative policies and developments
  • to harmonise the models in the Thünen Modelling Network as a precondition for timely responses to requests from the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture.

Approach

  1. Assumptions on the development of exogenous variables and the policy conditions in the baseline scenario are developed in close co-operation with experts at the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture
  2. Harmonization of the representation of policy instruments in the models
  3. Establishment of initial results and iterative co-ordination of models
  4. Discussion of preliminary results with representatives of Federal as well as Länder ministries. This approach allows the integration of expert knowledge and facilitates the definition of a scenario which is widely accepted as a relevant basis for further policy impact assessments.
  5. If required, revision of projection