The Thünen Baseline
The Thünen-Baseline is established by the Thünen Modelling Network every two years. This is not a forecast but rather describes the developments expected in the German agricultural sector during the next ten years
- under the current (agricultural) policy framework, and
- with assumptions about the development of exogenous influences
The Thünen-Baseline thus provides a reference scenario for the analysis of the impacts of alternative policies and developments.
Objectives of the Thünen-Baseline
The Thünen-Baseline serves
- to identify need for policy changes
- as a reference scenario for the analysis of the impacts of alternative policies and developments
- to harmonise the models of the Thünen Model Network as a precondition for timely responses to request of the BMEL
Approach
- Assumptions on the development of exogenous variables and the policy conditions in the baseline scenario are developed in close co-operation with experts of the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture
- Harmonization of the representation of policy instruments in the models
- Establishment of first results and iterative co-ordination of models
- Discussion of preliminary results with representatives of Federal as well as Länder ministries. This approach allows the integration of expert knowledge and facilitates the definition of a scenario which is widely accepted as a relevant basis for further policy impact assessments.
- If required, revision of projection