The Thünen Baseline

The Thünen-Baseline is established by the Thünen Modelling Network every two years. This is not a forecast but rather describes the developments expected in the German agricultural sector during the next ten years

  • under the current (agricultural) policy framework, and
  • with assumptions about the development of exogenous influences

The Thünen-Baseline thus provides a reference scenario for the analysis of the impacts of alternative policies and developments.

Objectives of the Thünen-Baseline

The Thünen-Baseline serves

  • to identify need for policy changes
  • as a reference scenario for the analysis of the impacts of alternative policies and developments
  • to harmonise the models of the Thünen Model Network as a precondition for timely responses to request of the BMEL

Approach

  1. Assumptions on the development of exogenous variables and the policy conditions in the baseline scenario are developed in close co-operation with experts of the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture
  2. Harmonization of the representation of policy instruments in the models
  3. Establishment of first results and iterative co-ordination of models
  4. Discussion of preliminary results with representatives of Federal as well as Länder ministries. This approach allows the integration of expert knowledge and facilitates the definition of a scenario which is widely accepted as a relevant basis for further policy impact assessments.
  5. If required, revision of projection