Climate Change - Land Use Strategies Germany; Sub project: Modelling of different forest land use strategies under changing environmental conditions
On the one hand, by increasing carbon stored in forest stands and wood products, forestry can contribute to the improvement of the carbon balance (mitigation). On the other hand, possible global warming and the associated changes in growth conditions challenge forestry to adapt its forest management (adaptation). With our research project we analyse economic aspects of both, adaption and mitigation.
The predicted climate changes, as well as the increasing competition for land areas will have both physical and economic consequences for forestry enterprises. Consequently, changes in tree species selection, in forest management, in the economic success of the enterprise, in wood supply and in carbon storage capacity of forests and wood can be expected. German forestry therefore has to adapt strategically to changing site and economic conditions. In this case, the long-term production periods present a special challenge to forestry. With our economic subproject we aim to determine the effects of changing production conditions on the profitability of German forest enterprises, on the domestic raw wood supply as well as on carbon stored in forest stands and in wood products.
Decision-makers from politics, administration and economy
To solve this economic problem we developed a forest enterprise simulation model. The model enables us to analyse the effects of forest management decisions under changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, we created model forest enterprises in order to simulate and analyse the effects of changing production conditions and the resulting silvicultural adaption measures.
Our developed forest enterprise simulation model is based on the forest growth- and forest management simulation of the simulator SILVA 2.3 (forest).In order to conduct climate-sensitive simulations, extensive databases had to be adapted to SILVA-structures (e.g., forest inventory, climate and soil data). The model forest enterprises were created based on site, stand, management and market data. Important databases of our research project are the National Forest Inventory, the base scenario of the forest development and timber resource modelling (WEHAM), climate data of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), soil data of the Nordwestdeutsche Forstlichen Versuchsanstalt (NW-FVA) as well as data of Test Enterprise Network (TBN-Forst) of BMEL.
11.2010 - 10.2015
Project status: finished