Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

Background and Objective

Every second year, we generate projections of the situation on  agri-food markets. Focal questions are which prices, supply, demand and trade will be relevant in 10 years time. We discuss results with Federal and State Ministries. To generate a baseline supports the political decision process by the availability of quantitative projections of future agri-food markets. There will be conclusions on topics of future developments and policy implications on global and EU agri-food markets.  A baseline is not a forecast of the future but describes expected developments under current policies considering assumptions of future values of exogenous variables not covered in the system like e.g. poipulation. This baseline we will use as counterfactual scenario to simulate effects of alternative policies.

Approach

A baseline projects current relations between variables. Estimated and synthetic parameters are incorporated in the equilibrium models AGMEMOD and MAGNET. Exogenous variables like the population will be projected into the future based on assumptions. Here, we often use external sources. Those future values of assumptions and the parameters allow to derive expected future values concerning agri-food markets.

Data and Methods

The partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD represents important agri-food markets and their interactions of the EU Member States. It uses prices and quantities.

The general equilibrium model MAGNET covers all sectors globally. It reflects value flows.

Preliminary Results

Results will be used as input for studies commissed by the BMEL.

Newest Baseline: Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013–2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut,
112 p, Thünen Rep 19 literatur.ti.bund.de/digbib_extern/dn053620.pdf

Links and Downloads

Website AGMEMOD

Website MAGNET

Thünen-Contact

• Salamon, Petra Institute of Market Analysis

Involved Thünen-Partners

• Freund, Florian Institute of Market Analysis
• González-Mellado, Aida Araceli Institute of Market Analysis
• Kreins, Peter Institute of Rural Studies
• Laquai, Verena Institute of Market Analysis
• Offermann, Frank Institute of Farm Economics
• Pelikan, Janine Institute of Market Analysis

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