Baseline with market models

Project

 (c) Thünen-Institut / Marktanalyse

Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

Background and Objective

Every second year, we generate projections of the situation on  agri-food markets. Focal questions are which prices, supply, demand and trade will be relevant in 10 years time. We discuss results with Federal and State Ministries. To generate a baseline supports the political decision process by the availability of quantitative projections of future agri-food markets. There will be conclusions on topics of future developments and policy implications on global and EU agri-food markets.  A baseline is not a forecast of the future but describes expected developments under current policies considering assumptions of future values of exogenous variables not covered in the system like e.g. poipulation. This baseline we will use as counterfactual scenario to simulate effects of alternative policies.

Approach

A baseline projects current relations between variables. Estimated and synthetic parameters are incorporated in the equilibrium models AGMEMOD and MAGNET. Exogenous variables like the population will be projected into the future based on assumptions. Here, we often use external sources. Those future values of assumptions and the parameters allow to derive expected future values concerning agri-food markets.

Data and Methods

The partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD represents important agri-food markets and their interactions of the EU Member States. It uses prices and quantities.

The general equilibrium model MAGNET covers all sectors globally. It reflects value flows.

Preliminary Results

Results will be used as input for studies commissed by the BMEL.

Newest Baseline: Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013–2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut,
112 p, Thünen Rep 19 literatur.ti.bund.de/digbib_extern/dn053620.pdf

Links and Downloads

Website AGMEMOD

Website MAGNET

Thünen-Contact


Involved Thünen-Partners


Publications

hits: 4

  1. Offermann F, Banse M, Freund F, Haß M, Kreins P, Laquai V, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P (2018) Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 56, DOI:10.3220/REP1516952942000
    pdf document (limited accessibility) 4353 kb
  2. Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 112 p, Thünen Rep 19, DOI:10.3220/REP_19_2014
    pdf document (limited accessibility) 3155 kb
  3. Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agri-economic projections for Germany. Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 64(1):1-16, DOI:10.3220/LBF_2014_1-16
    pdf document 2359 kb
  4. Fellmann T, Leeuwen M van, Salamon P, Kok A, Boluk G (2013) EU enlargement to Turkey: potential effects on Turkey agricultural income and markets. Eurasian Econ Rev 2(2):1-16